Constituency

Newark

ONS code: E14001375
Lookup slug: newark

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Likely Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Newark, East Midlands

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 13.4% (7,143 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 67.0% / 79,783
Second place: Reform UK 24.4%

CONConservative

37.8%-1.6 pts

RFMReform UK

24.4%+8.8 pts

LABLabour

23.6%-9.0 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

6.0%+0.4 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.0%+1.6 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

1.5%0.0 pts

OthOther

1.1%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

NewarkE14001375Electorate 79,783Valid votes 53,459Invalid votes 198Majority 3,572

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,708.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 25,676. Winner: 20,968.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Robert Jenrick	Conservative	20,968	39.2%	Elected
2	Saj Ahmad	Labour	17,396	32.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Robert Palmer	Reform UK	8,280	15.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	David Watts	Liberal Democrat	3,026	5.7%
5	Michael Ackroyd	Green Party	2,345	4.4%
6	Adrian Amer	Independent Network	809	1.5%
7	Lyn Galbraith	Independent	329	0.6%
8	Matthew Darrington	English Democrats	156	0.3%
9	Collan Siddique	Workers Party of Britain	150	0.3%

2019 general election

NewarkE14000829Electorate 75,850Valid votes 54,762Invalid votes 259Majority 21,816

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Robert Jenrick	Conservative	34,660	63.3%	Elected
2	James Baggaley	Labour	12,844	23.5%
3	David Watts	Liberal Democrat	5,308	9.7%
4	Jay Henderson	Green Party	1,950	3.6%

2017 general election

NewarkE14000829Electorate 75,510Valid votes 55,042Invalid votes 137Majority 18,149

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Robert Jenrick	Conservative	34,493	62.7%	Elected
2	Chantal Lee	Labour	16,344	29.7%
3	David Watts	Liberal Democrat	2,786	5.1%
4	Xandra Arundel	UK Independence Party	1,419	2.6%

2015 general election

NewarkE14000829Electorate 73,747Valid votes 52,302Invalid votes 165Majority 18,474

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Robert Jenrick	Conservative	29,834	57.0%	Elected
2	Michael Payne	Labour	11,360	21.7%
3	Brian Mapletoft	UK Independence Party	6,294	12.0%
4	David Dobbie	Liberal Democrat	2,385	4.6%
5	Elayne Forster	Green Party	1,792	3.4%
6	Helen Tyrer	Consensus	637	1.2%

2010 general election

NewarkE14000829Electorate 71,755Valid votes 51,228Invalid votes 112Majority 16,152

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Patrick Mercer	Conservative	27,590	53.9%	Elected
2	Ian Campbell	Labour	11,438	22.3%
3	Pauline Jenkins	Liberal Democrat	10,246	20.0%
4	Tom Irvine	UK Independence Party	1,954	3.8%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.