Constituency

Mid Buckinghamshire

ONS code: E14001360
Lookup slug: mid-buckinghamshire

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Likely Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Mid Buckinghamshire, South East

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 10.1% (5,423 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 71.3% / 75,622
Second place: Liberal Democrat 26.0%

CONConservative

36.0%-1.3 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

26.0%-0.5 pts

RFMReform UK

20.1%+7.2 pts

LABLabour

10.1%-6.9 pts

GRNGreen Party

7.1%+1.6 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.6%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.2%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Mid BuckinghamshireE14001360Electorate 75,622Valid votes 53,951Invalid votes 231Majority 5,872

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,299.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,449. Winner: 20,150.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Greg Smith	Conservative	20,150	37.3%	Elected
2	Anja Schaefer	Liberal Democrat	14,278	26.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Carissma Griffiths	Labour	9,171	17.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Stephanie Harwood	Reform UK	6,926	12.8%
5	Greg Smith	Green Party	2,942	5.5%
6	Yvonne Wilding	Social Democratic Party	337	0.6%
7	Wisdom Da Costa	Climate Party	147	0.3%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.