Constituency

Leeds North West

ONS code: E14001322
Lookup slug: leeds-north-west

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Safe Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Leeds North West, Yorkshire and the Humber

Winner: Labour
Margin: 18.2% (9,054 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 69.5% / 71,592
Second place: Conservative 20.3%

LABLabour

38.5%-7.5 pts

CONConservative

20.3%-1.8 pts

RFMReform UK

19.2%+7.3 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

11.5%+0.2 pts

GRNGreen Party

8.4%+1.9 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

2.1%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.1%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Leeds North WestE14001322Electorate 71,592Valid votes 49,777Invalid votes 176Majority 11,896

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Katie White	Labour	22,882	46.0%	Elected
2	Thomas Averre	Conservative	10,986	22.1%
3	Jayne Bond	Reform UK	5,935	11.9%
4	Ryk Downes	Liberal Democrat	5,641	11.3%
5	Mick Bradley	Green Party	3,231	6.5%
6	Bob Buxton	The Yorkshire Party	1,024	2.1%
7	Kathy Bushell	Social Democratic Party	78	0.2%

2019 general election

Leeds North WestE14000780Electorate 67,741Valid votes 49,283Invalid votes 138Majority 10,749

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alex Sobel	Labour + Co-operative Party	23,971	48.6%	Elected
2	Stewart Harper	Conservative	13,222	26.8%
3	Kamran Hussain	Liberal Democrat	9,397	19.1%
4	Martin Hemingway	Green Party	1,389	2.8%
5	Graeme Webber	The Brexit Party	1,304	2.6%

2017 general election

Leeds North WestE14000780Electorate 68,152Valid votes 46,287Invalid votes 97Majority 4,224

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,873.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 25,289. Winner: 20,416.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alex Sobel	Labour + Co-operative Party	20,416	44.1%	Elected
2	Greg Mulholland	Liberal Democrat	16,192	35.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Alan Lamb	Conservative	9,097	19.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Martin Hemingway	Green Party	582	1.3%

2015 general election

Leeds North WestE14000780Electorate 61,974Valid votes 43,357Invalid votes 159Majority 2,907

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,176.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,124. Winner: 15,948.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Greg Mulholland	Liberal Democrat	15,948	36.8%	Elected
2	Alex Sobel	Labour	13,041	30.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Alex Story	Conservative	8,083	18.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Tim Goodall	Green Party	3,042	7.0%
5	Julian Metcalfe	UK Independence Party	2,997	6.9%
6	Bob Buxton	Yorkshire First	143	0.3%
7	Mike Davies	Alliance for Green Socialism	79	0.2%
8	Mark Flanagan	The Above and Beyond Party	24	0.1%

2010 general election

Leeds North WestE14000780Electorate 65,399Valid votes 43,483Invalid votes 106Majority 9,103

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 29.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,682. Winner: 20,653.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Greg Mulholland	Liberal Democrat	20,653	47.5%	Elected
2	Julia Mulligan	Conservative	11,550	26.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Judith Blake	Labour	9,132	21.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Geoffrey Bulmer	British National Party	766	1.8%
5	Mark Thackray	UK Independence Party	600	1.4%
6	Martin Hemingway	Green Party	508	1.2%
7	Alan Procter	English Democrats	153	0.4%
8	Trevor Bavage	Alliance for Green Socialism	121	0.3%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.