Constituency

Great Yarmouth

ONS code: E14001256
Lookup slug: great-yarmouth

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Safe Reform UK hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM HOLD

Reform UK forecast to win in Great Yarmouth, East of England

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 27.6% (11,234 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 55.6% / 73,317
Second place: Labour 21.7%

RFMReform UK

49.3%+13.9 pts

LABLabour

21.7%-10.1 pts

CONConservative

19.3%-5.4 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.5%+1.2 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.2%+0.5 pts

OthOther

0.6%-0.1 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.5%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Great YarmouthE14001256Electorate 73,317Valid votes 40,748Invalid votes 121Majority 1,426

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 8,608.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,993. Winner: 14,385.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Rupert Lowe	Reform UK	14,385	35.3%	Elected
2	Keir Cozens	Labour	12,959	31.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	James Clark	Conservative	10,034	24.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Trevor Rawson	Green Party	1,736	4.3%
5	Fionna Tod	Liberal Democrat	1,102	2.7%
6	Paul Brown	Independent	230	0.6%
7	Catherine Blaiklock	English Democrats	171	0.4%
8	Clare Roullier	Independent	131	0.3%

2019 general election

Great YarmouthE14000717Electorate 71,957Valid votes 43,462Invalid votes 165Majority 17,663

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Brandon Lewis	Conservative	28,593	65.8%	Elected
2	Mike Smith-Clare	Labour + Co-operative Party	10,930	25.1%
3	James Joyce	Liberal Democrat	1,661	3.8%
4	Anne Killett	Green Party	1,064	2.4%
5	Dave Harding	Veterans and People's Party	631	1.5%
6	Adrian Myers	Independent	429	1.0%
7	Margaret McMahon-Morris	Independent	154	0.4%

2017 general election

Great YarmouthE14000717Electorate 71,408Valid votes 44,146Invalid votes 203Majority 7,973

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Brandon Lewis	Conservative	23,901	54.1%	Elected
2	Mike Smith-Clare	Labour	15,928	36.1%
3	Catherine Blaiklock	UK Independence Party	2,767	6.3%
4	James Joyce	Liberal Democrat	987	2.2%
5	Harry Webb	Green Party	563	1.3%

2015 general election

Great YarmouthE14000717Electorate 69,793Valid votes 44,469Invalid votes 160Majority 6,154

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,116.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,205. Winner: 19,089.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Brandon Lewis	Conservative	19,089	42.9%	Elected
2	Lara Norris	Labour	12,935	29.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Alan Grey	UK Independence Party	10,270	23.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	James Joyce	Liberal Democrat	1,030	2.3%
5	Harry Webb	Green Party	978	2.2%
6	Sam Townley	Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol	167	0.4%

2010 general election

Great YarmouthE14000717Electorate 70,315Valid votes 43,057Invalid votes 149Majority 4,276

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,912.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,483. Winner: 18,571.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Brandon Lewis	Conservative	18,571	43.1%	Elected
2	Anthony Wright	Labour	14,295	33.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Simon Partridge	Liberal Democrat	6,188	14.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Alan Baugh	UK Independence Party	2,066	4.8%
5	Bosco Tann	British National Party	1,421	3.3%
6	Laura Biggart	Green Party	416	1.0%
7	Margaret Morris	Matriarchal Party United Kingdom Great Britain	100	0.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.