Constituency

Sevenoaks

ONS code: E14001465
Lookup slug: sevenoaks

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Sevenoaks, South East

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 6.6% (3,298 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 67.7% / 73,708
Second place: Reform UK 27.6%

CONConservative

34.2%-2.5 pts

RFMReform UK

27.6%+8.9 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

24.5%-1.3 pts

LABLabour

7.5%-6.1 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.3%+1.2 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.6%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.4%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

SevenoaksE14001465Electorate 73,708Valid votes 49,899Invalid votes 151Majority 5,440

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,901.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,229. Winner: 18,328.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Laura Trott	Conservative	18,328	36.7%	Elected
2	Richard Streatfeild	Liberal Democrat	12,888	25.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	James Milmine	Reform UK	9,341	18.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Denise Scott-McDonald	Labour + Co-operative Party	6,802	13.6%
5	Laura Manston	Green Party	2,033	4.1%
6	Elwyn Jones	Rejoin EU	298	0.6%
7	Adam Hibbert	Social Democratic Party	209	0.4%

2019 general election

SevenoaksE14000918Electorate 71,757Valid votes 50,956Invalid votes 244Majority 20,818

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Laura Trott	Conservative	30,932	60.7%	Elected
2	Gareth Willis	Liberal Democrat	10,114	19.8%
3	Seamus McCauley	Labour	6,946	13.6%
4	Paul Wharton	Green Party	1,974	3.9%
5	Paulette Furse	Independent	695	1.4%
6	Sean Finch	Libertarian Party	295	0.6%

2017 general election

SevenoaksE14000918Electorate 71,565Valid votes 51,218Invalid votes 146Majority 21,917

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Michael Fallon	Conservative	32,644	63.7%	Elected
2	Christopher Clark	Labour	10,727	20.9%
3	Alan Bullion	Liberal Democrat	4,280	8.4%
4	Graham Cushway	UK Independence Party	1,894	3.7%
5	Philip Dodd	Green Party	1,673	3.3%

2015 general election

SevenoaksE14000918Electorate 71,958Valid votes 50,124Invalid votes 231Majority 19,561

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Michael Fallon	Conservative	28,531	56.9%	Elected
2	Steve Lindsay	UK Independence Party	8,970	17.9%
3	Christopher Clark	Labour	6,448	12.9%
4	Alan Bullion	Liberal Democrat	3,937	7.9%
5	Amelie Boleyn	Green Party	2,238	4.5%

2010 general election

SevenoaksE14000918Electorate 69,591Valid votes 49,408Invalid votes 85Majority 17,515

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Michael Fallon	Conservative	28,076	56.8%	Elected
2	Alan Bullion	Liberal Democrat	10,561	21.4%
3	Gareth Siddorn	Labour	6,541	13.2%
4	Christopher Heath	UK Independence Party	1,782	3.6%
5	Paul Golding	British National Party	1,384	2.8%
6	Louise Uncles	English Democrats	806	1.6%
7	Mark Ellis	Independent	258	0.5%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.