Constituency

Harwich and North Essex

ONS code: E14001273
Lookup slug: harwich-and-north-essex

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Harwich and North Essex, East of England

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 1.8% (842 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 63.0% / 76,296
Second place: Reform UK 30.5%

CONConservative

32.3%-2.1 pts

RFMReform UK

30.5%+10.1 pts

LABLabour

22.6%-9.3 pts

GRNGreen Party

7.3%+1.5 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

7.2%-0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

0.0%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Harwich and North EssexE14001273Electorate 76,296Valid votes 48,043Invalid votes 195Majority 1,162

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 8,644.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 25,166. Winner: 16,522.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bernard Jenkin	Conservative	16,522	34.4%	Elected
2	Alex Diner	Labour	15,360	32.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Mark Cole	Reform UK	9,806	20.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Natalie Sommers	Liberal Democrat	3,561	7.4%
5	Andrew Canessa	Green Party	2,794	5.8%

2019 general election

Harwich and North EssexE14000734Electorate 74,153Valid votes 51,963Invalid votes 162Majority 20,182

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bernard Jenkin	Conservative	31,830	61.3%	Elected
2	Stephen Rice	Labour	11,648	22.4%
3	Mike Beckett	Liberal Democrat	5,866	11.3%
4	Peter Banks	Green Party	1,945	3.7%
5	Tony Francis	Independent	411	0.8%
6	Richard Browning-Smith	Independent	263	0.5%

2017 general election

Harwich and North EssexE14000734Electorate 71,294Valid votes 51,141Invalid votes 83Majority 14,356

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bernard Jenkin	Conservative	29,921	58.5%	Elected
2	Rosalind Scott	Labour	15,565	30.4%
3	Dominic Graham	Liberal Democrat	2,787	5.4%
4	Aaaron Hammond	UK Independence Party	1,685	3.3%
5	Blake Roberts	Green Party	1,042	2.0%
6	Stephen Todd	Christian Peoples Alliance	141	0.3%

2015 general election

Harwich and North EssexE14000734Electorate 69,290Valid votes 48,432Invalid votes 166Majority 15,174

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bernard Jenkin	Conservative	24,722	51.0%	Elected
2	Edward Carlsson Browne	Labour	9,548	19.7%
3	Mark Hughes	UK Independence Party	8,464	17.5%
4	Dominic Graham	Liberal Democrat	3,576	7.4%
5	Christopher Flossman	Green Party	2,122	4.4%

2010 general election

Harwich and North EssexE14000734Electorate 70,743Valid votes 49,000Invalid votes 76Majority 11,447

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bernard Jenkin	Conservative	23,001	46.9%	Elected
2	James Raven	Liberal Democrat	11,554	23.6%
3	Darren Barrenger	Labour	9,774	19.9%
4	Simon Anselmi	UK Independence Party	2,527	5.2%
5	Stephen Robey	British National Party	1,065	2.2%
6	Chris Fox	Green Party	909	1.9%
7	Peter Thompson Bates	Independent	170	0.3%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.