Constituency

Grantham and Bourne

ONS code: E14001253
Lookup slug: grantham-and-bourne

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Grantham and Bourne, East Midlands

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 3.2% (1,482 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 62.9% / 73,285
Second place: Reform UK 31.0%

CONConservative

34.3%-2.4 pts

RFMReform UK

31.0%+10.4 pts

LABLabour

17.6%-9.2 pts

GRNGreen Party

7.1%+1.5 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

4.8%+0.3 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

3.5%-0.1 pts

OthOther

2.8%-0.4 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Grantham and BourneE14001253Electorate 73,285Valid votes 46,125Invalid votes 150Majority 4,496

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,897.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,667. Winner: 16,770.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Gareth Davies	Conservative	16,770	36.4%	Elected
2	Vipul Bechar	Labour	12,274	26.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Mike Rudkin	Reform UK	9,393	20.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Anne Gayfer	Green Party	2,570	5.6%
5	John Vincent	Liberal Democrat	2,027	4.4%
6	Ian Selby	Independent	1,642	3.6%
7	Charmaine Morgan	Lincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First	1,245	2.7%
8	Alexander Mitchell	Social Democratic Party	204	0.4%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.