Constituency

Forest of Dean

ONS code: E14001240
Lookup slug: forest-of-dean

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Conservative gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON GAIN

Conservative forecast to win in Forest of Dean, South West

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 4.0% (1,940 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 66.0% / 72,857
Second place: Reform UK 26.7%

CONConservative

30.8%-2.7 pts

RFMReform UK

26.7%+9.7 pts

LABLabour

24.8%-9.2 pts

GRNGreen Party

12.1%+2.3 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

5.3%-0.1 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.2%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Forest of DeanE14001240Electorate 72,857Valid votes 48,091Invalid votes 233Majority 278

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 7,916.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,289. Winner: 16,373.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Matt Bishop	Labour	16,373	34.0%	Elected
2	Mark Harper	Conservative	16,095	33.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Stan Goodin	Reform UK	8,194	17.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Chris McFarling	Green Party	4,735	9.8%
5	James Joyce	Liberal Democrat	2,604	5.4%
6	Saiham Sikder	Socialist Labour Party	90	0.2%

2019 general election

Forest of DeanE14000705Electorate 71,438Valid votes 51,475Invalid votes 230Majority 15,869

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Mark Harper	Conservative	30,680	59.6%	Elected
2	Di Martin	Labour + Co-operative Party	14,811	28.8%
3	Chris McFarling	Green Party	4,681	9.1%
4	Julian Burrett	Independent	1,303	2.5%

2017 general election

Forest of DeanE14000705Electorate 70,898Valid votes 51,767Invalid votes 81Majority 9,502

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Mark Harper	Conservative	28,096	54.3%	Elected
2	Shaun Stammers	Labour	18,594	35.9%
3	Janet Ellard	Liberal Democrat	2,029	3.9%
4	James Greenwood	Green Party	1,241	2.4%
5	Ernie Warrender	UK Independence Party	1,237	2.4%
6	Julian Burrett	Independent	570	1.1%

2015 general election

Forest of DeanE14000705Electorate 69,865Valid votes 49,520Invalid votes 184Majority 10,987

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Mark Harper	Conservative	23,191	46.8%	Elected
2	Steve Parry-Hearn	Labour	12,204	24.6%
3	Steve Stanbury	UK Independence Party	8,792	17.8%
4	James Greenwood	Green Party	2,703	5.5%
5	Chris Coleman	Liberal Democrat	2,630	5.3%

2010 general election

Forest of DeanE14000705Electorate 68,419Valid votes 48,763Invalid votes 57Majority 11,064

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Mark Harper	Conservative	22,853	46.9%	Elected
2	Bruce Allan Hogan	Labour	11,789	24.2%
3	Christopher Coleman	Liberal Democrat	10,676	21.9%
4	Tim Congdon	UK Independence Party	2,522	5.2%
5	James Greenwood	Green Party	923	1.9%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.