Constituency

Christchurch

ONS code: E14001171
Lookup slug: christchurch

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Christchurch, South West

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 4.2% (1,989 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 66.6% / 71,060
Second place: Reform UK 29.1%

CONConservative

33.4%-2.6 pts

RFMReform UK

29.1%+10.0 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

18.8%-1.3 pts

LABLabour

9.4%-7.0 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.3%+1.3 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

3.5%-0.1 pts

OthOther

1.0%-0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

ChristchurchE14001171Electorate 71,060Valid votes 47,335Invalid votes 143Majority 7,455

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,506.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 18,447. Winner: 16,941.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Christopher Chope	Conservative	16,941	35.8%	Elected
2	Mike Cox	Liberal Democrat	9,486	20.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Robin Adamson	Reform UK	8,961	18.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Joanna Howard	Labour	7,762	16.4%
5	Susan Graham	Green Party	1,900	4.0%
6	Simon McCormack	Independent	1,728	3.7%
7	Sasha Jolliffe Yasawi	Animal Welfare Party	335	0.7%
8	Steve Unwin	UK Independence Party	163	0.3%
9	Trevor Parsons	Social Democratic Party	59	0.1%

2019 general election

ChristchurchE14000638Electorate 71,520Valid votes 51,951Invalid votes 297Majority 24,617

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Christopher Chope	Conservative	33,894	65.2%	Elected
2	Mike Cox	Liberal Democrat	9,277	17.9%
3	Andrew Dunne	Labour	6,568	12.6%
4	Chris Rigby	Green Party	2,212	4.3%

2017 general election

ChristchurchE14000638Electorate 70,309Valid votes 50,634Invalid votes 161Majority 25,171

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Christopher Chope	Conservative	35,230	69.6%	Elected
2	Patrick Canavan	Labour	10,059	19.9%
3	Michael Cox	Liberal Democrat	4,020	7.9%
4	Chris Rigby	Green Party	1,325	2.6%

2015 general election

ChristchurchE14000638Electorate 69,303Valid votes 49,707Invalid votes 233Majority 18,224

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Christopher Chope	Conservative	28,887	58.1%	Elected
2	Robin Grey	UK Independence Party	10,663	21.5%
3	Andrew Satherley	Labour	4,745	9.5%
4	Andy Canning	Liberal Democrat	3,263	6.6%
5	Shona Dunn	Green Party	2,149	4.3%

2010 general election

ChristchurchE14000638Electorate 68,859Valid votes 49,416Invalid votes 91Majority 15,410

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Christopher Chope	Conservative	27,888	56.4%	Elected
2	Martyn Hurll	Liberal Democrat	12,478	25.3%
3	Robert Deeks	Labour	4,849	9.8%
4	David Williams	UK Independence Party	4,201	8.5%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.