Constituency

Bury North

ONS code: E14001144
Lookup slug: bury-north

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Bury North, North West

Winner: Labour
Margin: 9.1% (4,126 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 58.6% / 77,686
Second place: Conservative 25.6%

LABLabour

34.7%-8.5 pts

CONConservative

25.6%-2.3 pts

RFMReform UK

25.4%+9.1 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.2%+1.3 pts

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

4.2%0.0 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.5%+0.6 pts

OthOther

1.7%-0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Bury NorthE14001144Electorate 77,686Valid votes 45,520Invalid votes 174Majority 6,944

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 441.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,066. Winner: 19,625.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	James Frith	Labour	19,625	43.1%	Elected
2	James Daly	Conservative	12,681	27.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Lynda Rosewell	Reform UK	7,385	16.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Shafat Ali	Workers Party of Britain	1,917	4.2%
5	Owain Sutton	Green Party	1,747	3.8%
6	Mark Alcock	Liberal Democrat	1,317	2.9%
7	Anwarul Haq	Independent	571	1.3%
8	Spencer Donnelly	Independent	277	0.6%

2019 general election

Bury NorthE14000611Electorate 68,802Valid votes 46,841Invalid votes 111Majority 105

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,479.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,139. Winner: 21,660.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	James Daly	Conservative	21,660	46.2%	Elected
2	James Frith	Labour	21,555	46.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Gareth Lloyd-Johnson	Liberal Democrat	1,584	3.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Alan McCarthy	The Brexit Party	1,240	2.6%
5	Charlie Allen	Green Party	802	1.7%

2017 general election

Bury NorthE14000611Electorate 67,580Valid votes 47,903Invalid votes 156Majority 4,375

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	James Frith	Labour	25,683	53.6%	Elected
2	David Nuttall	Conservative	21,308	44.5%
3	Richard Baum	Liberal Democrat	912	1.9%

2015 general election

Bury NorthE14000611Electorate 67,580Valid votes 45,230Invalid votes 186Majority 378

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,217.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,187. Winner: 18,970.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	David Nuttall	Conservative	18,970	41.9%	Elected
2	James Frith	Labour	18,592	41.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Ian Henderson	UK Independence Party	5,595	12.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	John Southworth	Green Party	1,141	2.5%
5	Richard Baum	Liberal Democrat	932	2.1%

2010 general election

Bury NorthE14000611Electorate 66,759Valid votes 44,961Invalid votes 136Majority 2,243

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,402.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,472. Winner: 18,070.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	David Nuttall	Conservative	18,070	40.2%	Elected
2	Maryam Khan	Labour	15,827	35.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Richard Baum	Liberal Democrat	7,645	17.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	John Maude	British National Party	1,825	4.1%
5	Stephen Evans	UK Independence Party	1,282	2.9%
6	Bill Brison	Independent	181	0.4%
7	Graeme Lambert	Pirate Party UK	131	0.3%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.