Constituency

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

ONS code: E14001108
Lookup slug: bognor-regis-and-littlehampton

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, South East

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 1.6% (752 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 62.2% / 76,854
Second place: Conservative 30.7%

RFMReform UK

32.3%+10.8 pts

CONConservative

30.7%-2.1 pts

LABLabour

20.0%-9.2 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

9.8%-0.9 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.0%+1.4 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

1.4%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonE14001108Electorate 76,854Valid votes 47,827Invalid votes 186Majority 1,765

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 8,497.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,175. Winner: 15,678.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alison Griffiths	Conservative	15,678	32.8%	Elected
2	Clare Walsh	Labour	13,913	29.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Sandra Daniells	Reform UK	10,262	21.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Henry Jones	Liberal Democrat	5,081	10.6%
5	Carol Birch	Green Party	2,185	4.6%
6	David Kurten	Heritage Party	708	1.5%

2019 general election

Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonE14000576Electorate 77,446Valid votes 51,223Invalid votes 208Majority 22,503

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nick Gibb	Conservative	32,521	63.5%	Elected
2	Alan Butcher	Labour	10,018	19.6%
3	Francis Oppler	Liberal Democrat	5,645	11.0%
4	Carol Birch	Green Party	1,826	3.6%
5	David Kurten	UK Independence Party	846	1.7%
6	Andrew Elston	Independent	367	0.7%

2017 general election

Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonE14000576Electorate 75,827Valid votes 51,352Invalid votes 98Majority 17,494

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nick Gibb	Conservative	30,276	59.0%	Elected
2	Alan Butcher	Labour	12,782	24.9%
3	Francis Oppler	Liberal Democrat	3,352	6.5%
4	Paul Sanderson	Independent	2,088	4.1%
5	Patrick Lowe	UK Independence Party	1,861	3.6%
6	Andrew Bishop	Green Party	993	1.9%

2015 general election

Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonE14000576Electorate 72,995Valid votes 47,116Invalid votes 224Majority 13,944

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nick Gibb	Conservative	24,185	51.3%	Elected
2	Graham Jones	UK Independence Party	10,241	21.7%
3	Alan Butcher	Labour	6,508	13.8%
4	Francis Oppler	Liberal Democrat	4,240	9.0%
5	Simon McDougall	Green Party	1,942	4.1%

2010 general election

Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonE14000576Electorate 70,816Valid votes 46,852Invalid votes 83Majority 13,063

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nick Gibb	Conservative	24,087	51.4%	Elected
2	Simon McDougall	Liberal Democrat	11,024	23.5%
3	Michael Jones	Labour	6,580	14.0%
4	Douglas Denny	UK Independence Party	3,036	6.5%
5	Andrew Moffat	British National Party	1,890	4.0%
6	Melissa Briggs	Independent	235	0.5%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.