Constituency

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

ONS code: E14001558
Lookup slug: uxbridge-and-south-ruislip

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Conservative gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON GAIN

Conservative forecast to win in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Greater London

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 6.0% (2,767 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 61.4% / 74,745
Second place: Reform UK 26.1%

CONConservative

32.1%-2.8 pts

RFMReform UK

26.1%+11.7 pts

LABLabour

24.6%-11.6 pts

GRNGreen Party

11.9%+2.4 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

4.2%+0.4 pts

OthOther

0.8%0.0 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.4%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Uxbridge and South RuislipE14001558Electorate 74,745Valid votes 45,914Invalid votes 175Majority 587

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,023.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,622. Winner: 16,599.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Danny Beales	Labour	16,599	36.2%	Elected
2	Steve Tuckwell	Conservative	16,012	34.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Tim Wheeler	Reform UK	6,610	14.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Sarah Green	Green Party	4,354	9.5%
5	Ian Rex-Hawkes	Liberal Democrat	1,752	3.8%
6	Gary Harbord	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	223	0.5%
7	Steve Gardner	Social Democratic Party	200	0.4%
8	Geoff Courtenay	UK Independence Party	164	0.4%

2019 general election

Uxbridge and South RuislipE14001007Electorate 70,365Valid votes 48,187Invalid votes 93Majority 7,210

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Boris Johnson	Conservative	25,351	52.6%	Elected
2	Ali Milani	Labour	18,141	37.6%
3	Joanne Humphreys	Liberal Democrat	3,026	6.3%
4	Mark Keir	Green Party	1,090	2.3%
5	Geoffrey Courtenay	UK Independence Party	283	0.6%
6	Lord Buckethead	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	125	0.3%
7	Count Binface	Independent	69	0.1%
8	Alfie Utting	Independent	44	0.1%
9	Yace Yogenstein	Independent	23	0.0%
10	Norma Burke	Independent	22	0.0%
11	Bobby Smith	Independent	8	0.0%
12	William Tobin	Independent	5	0.0%

2017 general election

Uxbridge and South RuislipE14001007Electorate 69,936Valid votes 46,694Invalid votes 84Majority 5,034

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Boris Johnson	Conservative	23,716	50.8%	Elected
2	Vincent Lo	Labour	18,682	40.0%
3	Rosina Robson	Liberal Democrat	1,835	3.9%
4	Elizabeth Kemp	UK Independence Party	1,577	3.4%
5	Mark Keir	Green Party	884	1.9%

2015 general election

Uxbridge and South RuislipE14001007Electorate 70,631Valid votes 44,811Invalid votes 103Majority 10,695

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Boris Johnson	Conservative	22,511	50.2%	Elected
2	Chris Summers	Labour	11,816	26.4%
3	Jack Duffin	UK Independence Party	6,346	14.2%
4	Michael Cox	Liberal Democrat	2,215	4.9%
5	Graham Lee	Green Party	1,414	3.2%
6	Gary Harbord	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	180	0.4%
7	Jenny Thompson	Independent	84	0.2%
8	Howling 'Laud' Hope	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	72	0.2%
9	Sabrina Moosun	Communities United Party	52	0.1%
10	Lord Toby Jug	The Eccentric Party of Great Britain	50	0.1%
11	Michael Doherty	Independent	39	0.1%
12	Jane Lawrence	The Realists' Party	18	0.0%
13	James Jackson	Independent	14	0.0%

2010 general election

Uxbridge and South RuislipE14001007Electorate 71,160Valid votes 45,076Invalid votes 146Majority 11,216

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	John Randall	Conservative	21,758	48.3%	Elected
2	Sidharath Garg	Labour	10,542	23.4%
3	Michael Cox	Liberal Democrat	8,995	20.0%
4	Dianne Neal	British National Party	1,396	3.1%
5	Mark Wadsworth	UK Independence Party	1,234	2.7%
6	Mike Harling	Green Party	477	1.1%
7	Roger Cooper	English Democrats	403	0.9%
8	Francis McAllister	National Front	271	0.6%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.