Constituency

Thurrock

ONS code: E14001546
Lookup slug: thurrock

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Thurrock, East of England

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 5.5% (2,052 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 51.2% / 73,392
Second place: Labour 32.8%

RFMReform UK

38.2%+12.7 pts

LABLabour

32.8%-10.0 pts

CONConservative

17.8%-3.6 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.3%+0.9 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.3%+0.2 pts

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

1.8%-0.1 pts

OthOther

1.0%-0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

ThurrockE14001546Electorate 73,392Valid votes 37,558Invalid votes 97Majority 6,474

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,535.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 17,585. Winner: 16,050.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jen Craft	Labour	16,050	42.7%	Elected
2	Sophie Preston-Hall	Reform UK	9,576	25.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Jacqueline Doyle-Price	Conservative	8,009	21.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Eugene McCarthy	Green Party	1,632	4.3%
5	Michael Bukola	Liberal Democrat	1,157	3.1%
6	Yousaff Khan	Workers Party of Britain	691	1.8%
7	Nimal Raj	Independent	443	1.2%

2019 general election

ThurrockE14000995Electorate 79,659Valid votes 47,467Invalid votes 139Majority 11,482

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jacqueline Doyle-Price	Conservative	27,795	58.6%	Elected
2	John Kent	Labour	16,313	34.4%
3	Stewart Stone	Liberal Democrat	1,510	3.2%
4	James Woollard	Independent	1,042	2.2%
5	Ben Harvey	Green Party	807	1.7%

2017 general election

ThurrockE14000995Electorate 78,154Valid votes 50,325Invalid votes 97Majority 345

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 9,767.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 29,647. Winner: 19,880.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jackie Doyle-Price	Conservative	19,880	39.5%	Elected
2	John Kent	Labour	19,535	38.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Tim Aker	UK Independence Party	10,112	20.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Kevin McNamara	Liberal Democrat	798	1.6%

2015 general election

ThurrockE14000995Electorate 77,559Valid votes 49,564Invalid votes 126Majority 536

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 15,182.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 31,874. Winner: 16,692.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jackie Doyle-Price	Conservative	16,692	33.7%	Elected
2	Polly Billington	Labour	16,156	32.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Tim Aker	UK Independence Party	15,718	31.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Rhodri Jamieson-Ball	Liberal Democrat	644	1.3%
5	Jamie Barnes	Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol	244	0.5%
6	Daniel Munyambu	Independent	79	0.2%
7	Aba Kristilolu	All People's Party	31	0.1%

2010 general election

ThurrockE14000995Electorate 77,758Valid votes 45,821Invalid votes 168Majority 92

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,809.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,678. Winner: 16,869.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jackie Doyle-Price	Conservative	16,869	36.8%	Elected
2	Carl Morris	Labour	16,777	36.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Carys Davis	Liberal Democrat	4,901	10.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Emma Colgate	British National Party	3,618	7.9%
5	Clive Broad	UK Independence Party	3,390	7.4%
6	Arinola Araba	Christian Party, Proclaiming Christ's Lordship	266	0.6%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.