Constituency

Sutton and Cheam

ONS code: E14001534
Lookup slug: sutton-and-cheam

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Liberal Democrat hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LDM HOLD

Liberal Democrat forecast to win in Sutton and Cheam, Greater London

Winner: Liberal Democrat
Margin: 9.8% (4,675 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 65.8% / 72,303
Second place: Conservative 26.6%

LDMLiberal Democrat

36.5%-0.4 pts

CONConservative

26.6%-2.3 pts

RFMReform UK

22.2%+10.1 pts

LABLabour

9.2%-8.5 pts

GRNGreen Party

4.9%+1.3 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.6%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Sutton and CheamE14001534Electorate 72,303Valid votes 47,606Invalid votes 139Majority 3,801

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,629.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,205. Winner: 17,576.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Luke Taylor	Liberal Democrat	17,576	36.9%	Elected
2	Tom Drummond	Conservative	13,775	28.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Chrisni Reshekaron	Labour	8,430	17.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Ryan Powell	Reform UK	5,787	12.2%
5	Aasha Anam	Green Party	1,721	3.6%
6	Hamilton Action-Man Kingsley	Independent	317	0.7%

2019 general election

Sutton and CheamE14000984Electorate 71,779Valid votes 50,487Invalid votes 211Majority 8,351

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Paul Scully	Conservative	25,235	50.0%	Elected
2	Hina Bokhari	Liberal Democrat	16,884	33.4%
3	Bonnie Craven	Labour	7,200	14.3%
4	Claire Jackson-Prior	Green Party	1,168	2.3%

2017 general election

Sutton and CheamE14000984Electorate 70,404Valid votes 51,970Invalid votes 123Majority 12,698

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Paul Scully	Conservative	26,567	51.1%	Elected
2	Amna Ahmad	Liberal Democrat	13,869	26.7%
3	Bonnie Craven	Labour	10,663	20.5%
4	Claire Jackson-Prior	Green Party	871	1.7%

2015 general election

Sutton and CheamE14000984Electorate 69,228Valid votes 49,905Invalid votes 116Majority 3,921

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,625.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,357. Winner: 20,732.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Paul Scully	Conservative	20,732	41.5%	Elected
2	Paul Burstow	Liberal Democrat	16,811	33.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Emily Brothers	Labour	5,546	11.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Gus Dalgleish	UK Independence Party	5,341	10.7%
5	Maeve Tomlinson	Green Party	1,051	2.1%
6	Dave Ash	National Health Action Party	345	0.7%
7	Pauline Gorman	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	79	0.2%

2010 general election

Sutton and CheamE14000984Electorate 66,658Valid votes 48,508Invalid votes 189Majority 1,608

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,768.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,924. Winner: 22,156.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Paul Burstow	Liberal Democrat	22,156	45.7%	Elected
2	Philippa Stroud	Conservative	20,548	42.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Kathy Allen	Labour	3,376	7.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	John Clarke	British National Party	1,014	2.1%
5	David Pickles	UK Independence Party	950	2.0%
6	Peter Hickson	Green Party	246	0.5%
7	John Dodds	English Democrats	106	0.2%
8	Matthew Connolly	Christian Peoples Alliance	52	0.1%
9	Martin Cullip	Libertarian Party	41	0.1%
10	Brian Hammond	Independents Federation UK	19	0.0%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.