Constituency

Stratford-on-Avon

ONS code: E14001526
Lookup slug: stratford-on-avon

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Likely Liberal Democrat hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LDM HOLD

Liberal Democrat forecast to win in Stratford-on-Avon, West Midlands

Winner: Liberal Democrat
Margin: 13.9% (7,359 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 69.9% / 75,714
Second place: Conservative 28.1%

LDMLiberal Democrat

42.0%-2.3 pts

CONConservative

28.1%-2.7 pts

RFMReform UK

21.7%+7.1 pts

LABLabour

4.1%-3.0 pts

GRNGreen Party

3.3%+1.0 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.5%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.3%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Stratford-on-AvonE14001526Electorate 75,714Valid votes 52,959Invalid votes 179Majority 7,122

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 631.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,081. Winner: 23,450.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Manuela Perteghella	Liberal Democrat	23,450	44.3%	Elected
2	Chris Clarkson	Conservative	16,328	30.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	James Crocker	Reform UK	7,753	14.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Seyi Agboola	Labour	3,753	7.1%
5	Doug Rouxel	Green Party	1,197	2.3%
6	Kevin Taylor	Independent	292	0.6%
7	Neil O'Neil	New Open Non-Political Organised Leadership	186	0.4%

2019 general election

Stratford-on-AvonE14000977Electorate 74,037Valid votes 55,048Invalid votes 273Majority 19,972

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nadhim Zahawi	Conservative	33,343	60.6%	Elected
2	Dominic Skinner	Liberal Democrat	13,371	24.3%
3	Felix Ling	Labour	6,222	11.3%
4	Dave Passingham	Green Party	2,112	3.8%

2017 general election

Stratford-on-AvonE14000977Electorate 72,572Valid votes 53,532Invalid votes 152Majority 21,958

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nadhim Zahawi	Conservative	33,657	62.9%	Elected
2	Jeff Kenner	Labour	11,699	21.9%
3	Elizabeth Adams	Liberal Democrat	6,357	11.9%
4	Dominic Giles	Green Party	1,345	2.5%
5	Jandy Spurway	Independent	255	0.5%
6	Tom Darwood	Independent	219	0.4%

2015 general election

Stratford-on-AvonE14000977Electorate 71,304Valid votes 51,459Invalid votes 157Majority 22,876

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nadhim Zahawi	Conservative	29,674	57.7%	Elected
2	Edward Fila	UK Independence Party	6,798	13.2%
3	Jeff Kenner	Labour	6,677	13.0%
4	Elizabeth Adams	Liberal Democrat	6,182	12.0%
5	Dominic Giles	Green Party	2,128	4.1%

2010 general election

Stratford-on-AvonE14000977Electorate 69,517Valid votes 50,542Invalid votes 95Majority 11,346

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nadhim Zahawi	Conservative	26,052	51.5%	Elected
2	Martin Turner	Liberal Democrat	14,706	29.1%
3	Robert Johnston	Labour	4,809	9.5%
4	Brett Parsons	UK Independence Party	1,846	3.7%
5	George Jones	British National Party	1,097	2.2%
6	Neil Basnett	Independent	1,032	2.0%
7	Karen Varga	Green Party	527	1.0%
8	Fred Bishop	English Democrats	473	0.9%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.