Constituency

Stoke-on-Trent North

ONS code: E14001521
Lookup slug: stoke-on-trent-north

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Stoke-on-Trent North, West Midlands

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 5.8% (2,115 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 51.8% / 69,854
Second place: Labour 30.3%

RFMReform UK

36.1%+11.6 pts

LABLabour

30.3%-10.2 pts

CONConservative

23.4%-2.9 pts

GRNGreen Party

4.7%+1.2 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

2.9%+0.4 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

2.9%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Stoke-on-Trent NorthE14001521Electorate 69,854Valid votes 36,150Invalid votes 103Majority 5,082

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,742.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 18,321. Winner: 14,579.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	David Williams	Labour	14,579	40.3%	Elected
2	Jonathan Gullis	Conservative	9,497	26.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Karl Beresford	Reform UK	8,824	24.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Josh Harris	Green Party	1,236	3.4%
5	Jag Boyapati	Independent	1,103	3.1%
6	Lucy Hurds	Liberal Democrat	911	2.5%

2019 general election

Stoke-on-Trent NorthE14000973Electorate 68,298Valid votes 40,134Invalid votes 96Majority 6,286

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jonathan Gullis	Conservative	20,974	52.3%	Elected
2	Ruth Smeeth	Labour	14,688	36.6%
3	Richard Watkin	The Brexit Party	2,374	5.9%
4	Peter Andras	Liberal Democrat	1,268	3.2%
5	Alan Borgars	Green Party	508	1.3%
6	Matt Dilworth	Independent	322	0.8%

2017 general election

Stoke-on-Trent NorthE14000973Electorate 71,558Valid votes 41,786Invalid votes 123Majority 2,359

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Ruth Smeeth	Labour	21,272	50.9%	Elected
2	Ben Adams	Conservative	18,913	45.3%
3	Richard Whelan	Liberal Democrat	916	2.2%
4	Douglas Rouxel	Green Party	685	1.6%

2015 general election

Stoke-on-Trent NorthE14000973Electorate 71,438Valid votes 38,654Invalid votes 168Majority 4,836

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,706.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,135. Winner: 15,429.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Ruth Smeeth	Labour	15,429	39.9%	Elected
2	Ben Adams	Conservative	10,593	27.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Geoffrey Locke	UK Independence Party	9,542	24.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Paul Roberts	Liberal Democrat	1,137	2.9%
5	Sean Adam	Green Party	1,091	2.8%
6	John Millward	Independent	508	1.3%
7	Craig Pond	Independent	354	0.9%

2010 general election

Stoke-on-Trent NorthE14000973Electorate 72,054Valid votes 40,196Invalid votes 108Majority 8,235

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Joan Walley	Labour	17,815	44.3%	Elected
2	Andrew Large	Conservative	9,580	23.8%
3	John Fisher	Liberal Democrat	7,120	17.7%
4	Melanie Baddeley	British National Party	3,196	8.0%
5	Geoffrey Locke	UK Independence Party	2,485	6.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.