Constituency

Stafford

ONS code: E14001513
Lookup slug: stafford

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Stafford, West Midlands

Winner: Labour
Margin: 3.3% (1,532 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 65.2% / 70,608
Second place: Reform UK 28.1%

LABLabour

31.5%-8.9 pts

RFMReform UK

28.1%+9.4 pts

CONConservative

27.7%-2.6 pts

GRNGreen Party

8.1%+1.9 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.9%+0.2 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.7%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.2%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

StaffordE14001513Electorate 70,608Valid votes 46,009Invalid votes 160Majority 4,595

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,017.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,548. Winner: 18,531.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Leigh Ingham	Labour	18,531	40.3%	Elected
2	Theo Clarke	Conservative	13,936	30.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Michael Riley	Reform UK	8,612	18.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Scott Spencer	Green Party	2,856	6.2%
5	Peter Andras	Liberal Democrat	1,676	3.6%
6	Titus Anything	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	307	0.7%
7	Craig Morton	Heritage Party	91	0.2%

2019 general election

StaffordE14000965Electorate 72,572Valid votes 51,149Invalid votes 193Majority 14,377

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Theo Clarke	Conservative	29,992	58.6%	Elected
2	Joyce Still	Labour	15,615	30.5%
3	Alexander Wagner	Liberal Democrat	3,175	6.2%
4	Emma Carter	Green Party	2,367	4.6%

2017 general election

StaffordE14000965Electorate 68,445Valid votes 51,924Invalid votes 122Majority 7,729

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jeremy Lefroy	Conservative	28,424	54.7%	Elected
2	David Williams	Labour	20,695	39.9%
3	Christine Tinker	Liberal Democrat	1,540	3.0%
4	Tony Pearce	Green Party	1,265	2.4%

2015 general election

StaffordE14000965Electorate 68,705Valid votes 48,767Invalid votes 173Majority 9,177

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jeremy Lefroy	Conservative	23,606	48.4%	Elected
2	Kate Godfrey	Labour	14,429	29.6%
3	Ed Whitfield	UK Independence Party	6,293	12.9%
4	Karen Howell	National Health Action Party	1,701	3.5%
5	Mike Shone	Green Party	1,390	2.9%
6	Keith Miller	Liberal Democrat	1,348	2.8%

2010 general election

StaffordE14000965Electorate 70,667Valid votes 50,239Invalid votes 84Majority 5,460

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 2,751.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,798. Winner: 22,047.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jeremy Lefroy	Conservative	22,047	43.9%	Elected
2	David Kidney	Labour	16,587	33.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Barry Stamp	Liberal Democrat	8,211	16.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Roy Goode	UK Independence Party	1,727	3.4%
5	Roland Hynd	British National Party	1,103	2.2%
6	Mike Shone	Green Party	564	1.1%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.