Constituency

South Basildon and East Thurrock

ONS code: E14001480
Lookup slug: south-basildon-and-east-thurrock

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Safe Reform UK hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM HOLD

Reform UK forecast to win in South Basildon and East Thurrock, East of England

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 23.0% (9,093 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 54.4% / 72,673
Second place: Conservative 21.4%

RFMReform UK

44.6%+13.4 pts

CONConservative

21.4%-4.5 pts

LABLabour

20.8%-9.9 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.5%+1.2 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

4.7%-0.2 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.0%+0.3 pts

OthOther

0.9%-0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

South Basildon and East ThurrockE14001480Electorate 72,673Valid votes 39,549Invalid votes 123Majority 98

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 10,061.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,239. Winner: 12,178.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	James McMurdock	Reform UK	12,178	30.8%	Elected
2	Jack Ferguson	Labour	12,080	30.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Stephen Metcalfe	Conservative	10,159	25.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Neil Speight	Independent	1,928	4.9%
5	Elizabeth Grant	Green Party	1,718	4.3%
6	Dave Thomas	Liberal Democrat	1,071	2.7%
7	Steven Burnett	Independent	275	0.7%
8	Simon Breedon	Social Democratic Party	140	0.4%

2019 general election

South Basildon and East ThurrockE14000933Electorate 74,441Valid votes 45,297Invalid votes 198Majority 19,922

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Stephen Metcalfe	Conservative	29,973	66.2%	Elected
2	Jack Ferguson	Labour	10,051	22.2%
3	Kerry Smith	Independent	3,316	7.3%
4	Michael Bukola	Liberal Democrat	1,957	4.3%

2017 general election

South Basildon and East ThurrockE14000933Electorate 73,537Valid votes 47,120Invalid votes 75Majority 11,490

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Stephen Metcalfe	Conservative	26,811	56.9%	Elected
2	Byron Taylor	Labour	15,321	32.5%
3	Peter Whittle	UK Independence Party	3,193	6.8%
4	Reetendra Banerji	Liberal Democrat	732	1.6%
5	Sim Harman	Green Party	680	1.4%
6	Paul Borg	British National Party	383	0.8%

2015 general election

South Basildon and East ThurrockE14000933Electorate 71,155Valid votes 45,593Invalid votes 106Majority 7,691

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,802.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,590. Winner: 19,788.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Stephen Metcalfe	Conservative	19,788	43.4%	Elected
2	Ian Luder	UK Independence Party	12,097	26.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Mike Le-Surf	Labour	11,493	25.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Geoff Williams	Liberal Democrat	1,356	3.0%
5	Kerry Smith	Independent	401	0.9%
6	None Of The Above X	Independent	253	0.6%
7	Stuart Hooper	Independent	205	0.4%

2010 general election

South Basildon and East ThurrockE14000933Electorate 71,874Valid votes 44,735Invalid votes 100Majority 5,772

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 205.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 19,829. Winner: 19,624.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Stephen Metcalfe	Conservative	19,624	43.9%	Elected
2	Angela Smith	Labour + Co-operative Party	13,852	31.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Geoff Williams	Liberal Democrat	5,977	13.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Kerry Smith	UK Independence Party	2,639	5.9%
5	Christopher Roberts	British National Party	2,518	5.6%
6	N. X	Independent	125	0.3%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.