Constituency

Sefton Central

ONS code: E14001463
Lookup slug: sefton-central

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Safe Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Sefton Central, North West

Winner: Labour
Margin: 28.7% (13,605 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 63.9% / 74,284
Second place: Reform UK 19.7%

LABLabour

48.3%-8.1 pts

RFMReform UK

19.7%+7.5 pts

CONConservative

16.3%-1.6 pts

GRNGreen Party

8.8%+1.8 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

6.0%+0.4 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

1.1%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Sefton CentralE14001463Electorate 74,284Valid votes 47,449Invalid votes 225Majority 18,282

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bill Esterson	Labour	26,772	56.4%	Elected
2	Marcus Bleasdale	Conservative	8,490	17.9%
3	Nagender Chindam	Reform UK	5,767	12.2%
4	Kieran Dams	Green Party	3,294	6.9%
5	Gareth Lloyd-Johnson	Liberal Democrat	2,630	5.5%
6	Ralph James	Independent	496	1.0%

2019 general election

Sefton CentralE14000916Electorate 69,760Valid votes 50,880Invalid votes 153Majority 15,122

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bill Esterson	Labour	29,254	57.5%	Elected
2	Wazz Mughal	Conservative	14,132	27.8%
3	Keith Cawdron	Liberal Democrat	3,386	6.7%
4	Paul Lomas	The Brexit Party	2,425	4.8%
5	Alison Gibbon	Green Party	1,261	2.5%
6	Angela Preston	Liberal	285	0.6%
7	Carla Burns	Renew	137	0.3%

2017 general election

Sefton CentralE14000916Electorate 69,019Valid votes 52,079Invalid votes 128Majority 15,618

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bill Esterson	Labour	32,830	63.0%	Elected
2	Jade Marsden	Conservative	17,212	33.0%
3	Daniel Lewis	Liberal Democrat	1,381	2.7%
4	Mike Carter	Green Party	656	1.3%

2015 general election

Sefton CentralE14000916Electorate 67,744Valid votes 49,021Invalid votes 200Majority 11,846

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bill Esterson	Labour	26,359	53.8%	Elected
2	Valerie Allen	Conservative	14,513	29.6%
3	Tim Power	UK Independence Party	4,879	10.0%
4	Paula Keaveney	Liberal Democrat	2,086	4.3%
5	Lindsay Melia	Green Party	1,184	2.4%

2010 general election

Sefton CentralE14000916Electorate 67,511Valid votes 48,463Invalid votes 176Majority 3,862

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,794.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 26,101. Winner: 20,307.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Bill Esterson	Labour	20,307	41.9%	Elected
2	Deborah Jones	Conservative	16,445	33.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Richard Clein	Liberal Democrat	9,656	19.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Peter Harper	UK Independence Party	2,055	4.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.