Constituency

Scunthorpe

ONS code: E14001462
Lookup slug: scunthorpe

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Scunthorpe, Yorkshire and the Humber

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 1.4% (543 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 52.9% / 73,855
Second place: Labour 30.3%

RFMReform UK

31.7%+10.7 pts

LABLabour

30.3%-9.4 pts

CONConservative

27.7%-3.0 pts

GRNGreen Party

4.3%+1.2 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.1%+0.7 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

3.0%-0.1 pts

OthOther

0.2%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

ScunthorpeE14001462Electorate 73,855Valid votes 39,051Invalid votes 103Majority 3,542

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,621.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,105. Winner: 15,484.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nicholas Dakin	Labour	15,484	39.7%	Elected
2	Holly Mumby-Croft	Conservative	11,942	30.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Darren Haley	Reform UK	8,163	20.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Nick Cox	Green Party	1,218	3.1%
5	Abdul Butt	Independent	1,202	3.1%
6	Cahal Burke	Liberal Democrat	942	2.4%
7	Scott Curtis	Heritage Party	100	0.3%

2019 general election

ScunthorpeE14000914Electorate 61,955Valid votes 37,750Invalid votes 84Majority 6,451

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Holly Mumby-Croft	Conservative	20,306	53.8%	Elected
2	Nic Dakin	Labour	13,855	36.7%
3	Jerry Gorman	The Brexit Party	2,044	5.4%
4	Ryk Downes	Liberal Democrat	875	2.3%
5	Peter Dennington	Green Party	670	1.8%

2017 general election

ScunthorpeE14000914Electorate 61,578Valid votes 40,202Invalid votes 72Majority 3,431

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nic Dakin	Labour	20,916	52.0%	Elected
2	Holly Mumby-Croft	Conservative	17,485	43.5%
3	Andy Talliss	UK Independence Party	1,247	3.1%
4	Ryk Downes	Liberal Democrat	554	1.4%

2015 general election

ScunthorpeE14000914Electorate 64,025Valid votes 36,941Invalid votes 133Majority 3,134

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,195.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 18,588. Winner: 15,393.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nic Dakin	Labour	15,393	41.7%	Elected
2	Jo Gideon	Conservative	12,259	33.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Stephen Howd	UK Independence Party	6,329	17.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Des Comerford	Independent	1,097	3.0%
5	Martin Dwyer	Green Party	887	2.4%
6	Simon Dodd	Liberal Democrat	770	2.1%
7	Paul Elsom	Independent	206	0.6%

2010 general election

ScunthorpeE14000914Electorate 63,089Valid votes 37,034Invalid votes 42Majority 2,549

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,225.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 18,865. Winner: 14,640.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nick Dakin	Labour	14,640	39.5%	Elected
2	Caroline Johnson	Conservative	12,091	32.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Neil Poole	Liberal Democrat	6,774	18.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Janet Collins	UK Independence Party	1,686	4.6%
5	Douglas Ward	British National Party	1,447	3.9%
6	Natalie Hurst	Green Party	396	1.1%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.