Constituency

Orpington

ONS code: E14001417
Lookup slug: orpington

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Orpington, Greater London

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 4.4% (2,036 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 64.6% / 71,284
Second place: Reform UK 31.1%

CONConservative

35.6%-2.4 pts

RFMReform UK

31.1%+11.8 pts

LABLabour

15.8%-11.0 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

10.4%+0.1 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.6%+1.6 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.5%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

OrpingtonE14001417Electorate 71,284Valid votes 46,073Invalid votes 165Majority 5,118

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,778.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,282. Winner: 17,504.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Gareth Bacon	Conservative	17,504	38.0%	Elected
2	Ju Owens	Labour	12,386	26.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Mark James	Reform UK	8,896	19.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Graeme Casey	Liberal Democrat	4,728	10.3%
5	Seamus McCauley	Green Party	2,319	5.0%
6	John Bright	Social Democratic Party	240	0.5%

2019 general election

OrpingtonE14000872Electorate 68,877Valid votes 48,721Invalid votes 263Majority 22,378

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Gareth Bacon	Conservative	30,882	63.4%	Elected
2	Simon Jeal	Labour	8,504	17.5%
3	Allan Tweddle	Liberal Democrat	7,552	15.5%
4	Karen Wheller	Green Party	1,783	3.7%

2017 general election

OrpingtonE14000872Electorate 67,902Valid votes 50,461Invalid votes 104Majority 19,461

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Joseph Johnson	Conservative	31,762	62.9%	Elected
2	Nigel de Gruchy	Labour	12,301	24.4%
3	Alex Feakes	Liberal Democrat	3,315	6.6%
4	Brian Philp	UK Independence Party	2,023	4.0%
5	Tamara Galloway	Green Party	1,060	2.1%

2015 general election

OrpingtonE14000872Electorate 68,129Valid votes 49,032Invalid votes 94Majority 19,979

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Joseph Johnson	Conservative	28,152	57.4%	Elected
2	Idham Ramadi	UK Independence Party	8,173	16.7%
3	Nigel De Gruchy	Labour	7,645	15.6%
4	Peter Brooks	Liberal Democrat	3,330	6.8%
5	Tamara Galloway	Green Party	1,732	3.5%

2010 general election

OrpingtonE14000872Electorate 67,732Valid votes 48,911Invalid votes 110Majority 17,200

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jo Johnson	Conservative	29,200	59.7%	Elected
2	David McBride	Liberal Democrat	12,000	24.5%
3	Stephen Morgan	Labour	4,400	9.0%
4	Mick Greenhough	UK Independence Party	1,360	2.8%
5	Tess Culnane	British National Party	1,241	2.5%
6	Tamara Galloway	Green Party	511	1.0%
7	Chris Snape	English Democrats	199	0.4%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.