Constituency

North East Hampshire

ONS code: E14001392
Lookup slug: north-east-hampshire

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Liberal Democrat hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LDM HOLD

Liberal Democrat forecast to win in North East Hampshire, South East

Winner: Liberal Democrat
Margin: 2.6% (1,435 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 72.2% / 76,923
Second place: Conservative 34.5%

LDMLiberal Democrat

37.1%-1.0 pts

CONConservative

34.5%-2.5 pts

RFMReform UK

18.4%+6.4 pts

LABLabour

5.3%-3.8 pts

GRNGreen Party

3.7%+1.1 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.6%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.5%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

North East HampshireE14001392Electorate 76,923Valid votes 55,560Invalid votes 143Majority 634

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,039.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 27,217. Winner: 21,178.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alex Brewer	Liberal Democrat	21,178	38.1%	Elected
2	Ranil Jayawardena	Conservative	20,544	37.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Paul Morton	Reform UK	6,673	12.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Bradley Phillips	Labour	5,057	9.1%
5	Mohamed Miah	Green Party	1,425	2.6%
6	Howling (Alan) Hope	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	340	0.6%
7	Duncan Stone	Hampshire Independents	274	0.5%
8	Alex Zychowski	Libertarian Party	69	0.1%

2019 general election

North East HampshireE14000844Electorate 78,954Valid votes 59,270Invalid votes 174Majority 20,211

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Ranil Jayawardena	Conservative	35,280	59.5%	Elected
2	Graham Cockarill	Liberal Democrat	15,069	25.4%
3	Barry Jones	Labour	5,760	9.7%
4	Culann Walsh	Green Party	1,754	3.0%
5	Tony Durrant	Independent	831	1.4%
6	Alan Hope	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	576	1.0%

2017 general election

North East HampshireE14000844Electorate 74,576Valid votes 57,627Invalid votes 121Majority 27,772

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Ranil Jayawardena	Conservative	37,754	65.5%	Elected
2	Barry Jones	Labour	9,982	17.3%
3	Graham Cockarill	Liberal Democrat	6,987	12.1%
4	Chas Spradbery	Green Party	1,476	2.6%
5	Mike Gascoigne	UK Independence Party	1,061	1.8%
6	Robert Blay	Independent	367	0.6%

2015 general election

North East HampshireE14000844Electorate 76,918Valid votes 54,000Invalid votes 198Majority 29,916

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Ranil Jayawardena	Conservative	35,573	65.9%	Elected
2	Graham Cockarill	Liberal Democrat	5,657	10.5%
3	Amran Hussain	Labour	5,290	9.8%
4	Robert Blay	UK Independence Party	4,732	8.8%
5	Andrew Johnston	Green Party	2,364	4.4%
6	Mad Max Bobetsky	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	384	0.7%

2010 general election

North East HampshireE14000844Electorate 72,196Valid votes 52,939Invalid votes 105Majority 18,597

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	James Arbuthnot	Conservative	32,075	60.6%	Elected
2	Denzil Coulson	Liberal Democrat	13,478	25.5%
3	Barry Jones	Labour	5,173	9.8%
4	Ruth Duffin	UK Independence Party	2,213	4.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.