Constituency

Newcastle-under-Lyme

ONS code: E14001380
Lookup slug: newcastle-under-lyme

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Newcastle-under-Lyme, West Midlands

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 2.0% (779 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 58.4% / 67,815
Second place: Labour 31.0%

RFMReform UK

32.9%+10.6 pts

LABLabour

31.0%-9.4 pts

CONConservative

24.8%-2.8 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.1%+1.4 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

5.2%+0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

0.0%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Newcastle-under-LymeE14001380Electorate 67,815Valid votes 39,618Invalid votes 158Majority 5,069

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,796.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 19,788. Winner: 15,992.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Adam Jogee	Labour	15,992	40.4%	Elected
2	Simon Tagg	Conservative	10,923	27.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Neill Walker	Reform UK	8,865	22.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Nigel Jones	Liberal Democrat	1,987	5.0%
5	Jennifer Hibell	Green Party	1,851	4.7%

2019 general election

Newcastle-under-LymeE14000834Electorate 68,211Valid votes 44,739Invalid votes 140Majority 7,446

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Aaron Bell	Conservative	23,485	52.5%	Elected
2	Carl Greatbatch	Labour	16,039	35.9%
3	Nigel Jones	Liberal Democrat	2,361	5.3%
4	Jason Cooper	The Brexit Party	1,921	4.3%
5	Carl Johnson	Green Party	933	2.1%

2017 general election

Newcastle-under-LymeE14000834Electorate 65,596Valid votes 43,842Invalid votes 172Majority 30

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,594.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,718. Winner: 21,124.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Paul Farrelly	Labour	21,124	48.2%	Elected
2	Owen Meredith	Conservative	21,094	48.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Nigel Jones	Liberal Democrat	1,624	3.7%	2nd + 3rd signal

2015 general election

Newcastle-under-LymeE14000834Electorate 67,619Valid votes 42,997Invalid votes 125Majority 650

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,602.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,122. Winner: 16,520.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Paul Farrelly	Labour	16,520	38.4%	Elected
2	Tony Cox	Conservative	15,870	36.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Phil Wood	UK Independence Party	7,252	16.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Ian Wilkes	Liberal Democrat	1,826	4.2%
5	Sam Gibbons	Green Party	1,246	2.9%
6	David Nixon	Independent	283	0.7%

2010 general election

Newcastle-under-LymeE14000834Electorate 69,433Valid votes 43,191Invalid votes 112Majority 1,552

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,914.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,307. Winner: 16,393.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Paul Farrelly	Labour	16,393	38.0%	Elected
2	Robert Jenrick	Conservative	14,841	34.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Nigel Jones	Liberal Democrat	8,466	19.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	David Nixon	UK Independence Party	3,491	8.1%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.