Constituency

Mid Sussex

ONS code: E14001366
Lookup slug: mid-sussex

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Likely Liberal Democrat hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LDM HOLD

Liberal Democrat forecast to win in Mid Sussex, South East

Winner: Liberal Democrat
Margin: 14.3% (7,651 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 70.2% / 75,969
Second place: Conservative 25.5%

LDMLiberal Democrat

39.9%+0.2 pts

CONConservative

25.5%-1.6 pts

RFMReform UK

18.1%+7.0 pts

LABLabour

10.6%-7.1 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.3%+1.5 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.7%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Mid SussexE14001366Electorate 75,969Valid votes 53,328Invalid votes 145Majority 6,662

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 2,735.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,871. Winner: 21,136.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alison Bennett	Liberal Democrat	21,136	39.6%	Elected
2	Kristy Adams	Conservative	14,474	27.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	David Rowntree	Labour	9,397	17.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Gary Johnson	Reform UK	5,921	11.1%
5	Deanna Nicholson	Green Party	2,048	3.8%
6	Baron Von Thunderclap	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	352	0.7%

2019 general election

Mid SussexE14000817Electorate 85,146Valid votes 62,762Invalid votes 222Majority 18,197

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Mims Davies	Conservative	33,455	53.3%	Elected
2	Robert Eggleston	Liberal Democrat	15,258	24.3%
3	Gemma Bolton	Labour	11,218	17.9%
4	Deanna Nicholson	Green Party	2,234	3.6%
5	Baron Von Thunderclap	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	550	0.9%
6	Brett Mortensen	Advance Together	47	0.1%

2017 general election

Mid SussexE14000817Electorate 84,170Valid votes 61,632Invalid votes 113Majority 19,673

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nicholas Soames	Conservative	35,082	56.9%	Elected
2	Greg Mountain	Labour	15,409	25.0%
3	Sarah Osborne	Liberal Democrat	7,855	12.7%
4	Chris Jerrey	Green Party	1,571	2.5%
5	Toby Brothers	UK Independence Party	1,251	2.0%
6	Baron Von Thunderclap	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	464	0.8%

2015 general election

Mid SussexE14000817Electorate 81,034Valid votes 57,492Invalid votes 252Majority 24,286

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nicholas Soames	Conservative	32,268	56.1%	Elected
2	Greg Mountain	Labour	7,982	13.9%
3	Toby Brothers	UK Independence Party	6,898	12.0%
4	Daisy Cooper	Liberal Democrat	6,604	11.5%
5	Miranda Diboll	Green Party	2,453	4.3%
6	Beki Adam	Independent	958	1.7%
7	Baron Von Thunderclap	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	329	0.6%

2010 general election

Mid SussexE14000817Electorate 77,199Valid votes 55,855Invalid votes 100Majority 7,402

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Nicholas Soames	Conservative	28,329	50.7%	Elected
2	Serena Tierney	Liberal Democrat	20,927	37.5%
3	David Boot	Labour	3,689	6.6%
4	Marc Montgomery	UK Independence Party	1,423	2.5%
5	Paul Brown	Green Party	645	1.2%
6	Stuart Minihane	British National Party	583	1.0%
7	Baron Von Thunderclap	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	259	0.5%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.