Constituency

Mid Derbyshire

ONS code: E14001362
Lookup slug: mid-derbyshire

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Conservative gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON GAIN

Conservative forecast to win in Mid Derbyshire, East Midlands

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 1.9% (887 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 68.0% / 69,917
Second place: Labour 27.9%

CONConservative

29.8%-2.8 pts

LABLabour

27.9%-8.6 pts

RFMReform UK

26.8%+9.2 pts

GRNGreen Party

9.4%+1.9 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

5.3%+0.3 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.7%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.3%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Mid DerbyshireE14001362Electorate 69,917Valid votes 47,543Invalid votes 153Majority 1,878

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,478.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,824. Winner: 17,346.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jonathan Davies	Labour	17,346	36.5%	Elected
2	Luke Gardiner	Conservative	15,468	32.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Stephen Dean	Reform UK	8,356	17.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Gez Kinsella	Green Party	3,547	7.5%
5	Barry Holliday	Liberal Democrat	2,361	5.0%
6	Sue Warren	Independent	315	0.7%
7	Josiah Uche	Workers Party of Britain	150	0.3%

2019 general election

Mid DerbyshireE14000814Electorate 67,442Valid votes 49,356Invalid votes 197Majority 15,385

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Pauline Latham	Conservative	29,027	58.8%	Elected
2	Emma Monkman	Labour	13,642	27.6%
3	Felix Dodds	Liberal Democrat	4,756	9.6%
4	Sue MacFarlane	Green Party	1,931	3.9%

2017 general election

Mid DerbyshireE14000814Electorate 67,466Valid votes 50,371Invalid votes 136Majority 11,616

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Pauline Latham	Conservative	29,513	58.6%	Elected
2	Alison Martin	Labour	17,897	35.5%
3	Adam Wain	Liberal Democrat	1,793	3.6%
4	Sue MacFarlane	Green Party	1,168	2.3%

2015 general election

Mid DerbyshireE14000814Electorate 67,477Valid votes 47,729Invalid votes 116Majority 12,774

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Pauline Latham	Conservative	24,908	52.2%	Elected
2	Nicola Heaton	Labour	12,134	25.4%
3	Martin Fitzpatrick	UK Independence Party	6,497	13.6%
4	Hilary Jones	Liberal Democrat	2,292	4.8%
5	Sue Macfarlane	Green Party	1,898	4.0%

2010 general election

Mid DerbyshireE14000814Electorate 66,074Valid votes 47,342Invalid votes 97Majority 11,292

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Pauline Latham	Conservative	22,877	48.3%	Elected
2	Hardyal Dhindsa	Labour	11,585	24.5%
3	Sally McIntosh	Liberal Democrat	9,711	20.5%
4	Lewis Allsebrook	British National Party	1,698	3.6%
5	Anthony Kay	UK Independence Party	1,252	2.6%
6	R.U. Seerius	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	219	0.5%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.