Constituency

Mansfield

ONS code: E14001355
Lookup slug: mansfield

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Mansfield, East Midlands

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 5.4% (2,212 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 55.1% / 74,535
Second place: Labour 29.0%

RFMReform UK

34.4%+11.5 pts

LABLabour

29.0%-10.1 pts

CONConservative

27.9%-2.8 pts

GRNGreen Party

4.4%+1.1 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

2.5%+0.6 pts

OthOther

1.1%-0.2 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

1.0%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

MansfieldE14001355Electorate 74,535Valid votes 41,087Invalid votes 114Majority 3,485

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,900.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,948. Winner: 16,048.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Steve Yemm	Labour	16,048	39.1%	Elected
2	Ben Bradley	Conservative	12,563	30.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Matthew Warnes	Reform UK	9,385	22.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Phil Shields	Green Party	1,326	3.2%
5	Michael Wyatt	Liberal Democrat	799	1.9%
6	Peter Dean	Socialist Labour Party	423	1.0%
7	Wesley Milligan	Independent	335	0.8%
8	Karen Seymour	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	123	0.3%
9	Zen Bilas	Independent	85	0.2%

2019 general election

MansfieldE14000810Electorate 77,131Valid votes 49,273Invalid votes 157Majority 16,306

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Ben Bradley	Conservative	31,484	63.9%	Elected
2	Sonya Ward	Labour	15,178	30.8%
3	Sarah Brown	Liberal Democrat	1,626	3.3%
4	Sid Pepper	Independent	527	1.1%
5	Stephen Harvey	Independent	458	0.9%

2017 general election

MansfieldE14000810Electorate 77,811Valid votes 50,157Invalid votes 99Majority 1,057

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,597.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,989. Winner: 23,392.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Ben Bradley	Conservative	23,392	46.6%	Elected
2	Alan Meale	Labour	22,335	44.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Sid Pepper	UK Independence Party	2,654	5.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Philip Shields	Independent	1,079	2.2%
5	Anita Prabhakar	Liberal Democrat	697	1.4%

2015 general election

MansfieldE14000810Electorate 77,534Valid votes 47,193Invalid votes 136Majority 5,315

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,535.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 25,138. Winner: 18,603.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alan Meale	Labour	18,603	39.4%	Elected
2	Andrea Clarke	Conservative	13,288	28.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Sid Pepper	UK Independence Party	11,850	25.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Tony Rogers	Liberal Democrat	1,642	3.5%
5	Paul Frost	Green Party	1,486	3.1%
6	Karen Seymour	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	324	0.7%

2010 general election

MansfieldE14000810Electorate 80,069Valid votes 48,395Invalid votes 84Majority 6,012

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,457.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,210. Winner: 18,753.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alan Meale	Labour	18,753	38.7%	Elected
2	Tracy Critchlow	Conservative	12,741	26.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Michael Wyatt	Liberal Democrat	7,469	15.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Andre Camilleri	Mansfield Independents	4,339	9.0%
5	David Hamilton	UK Independence Party	2,985	6.2%
6	Rachel Hill	British National Party	2,108	4.4%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.