Back to lookup

Constituency

Louth and Horncastle

ONS code
E14001343
Lookup slug
louth-and-horncastle
Our Recommendation

TBD

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Louth and Horncastle, East Midlands

Winner
Reform UK
Margin
2.4% (1,112 votes)
Turnout / electorate
60.5% / 76,880
Second place
Conservative 34.5%
RFMReform UK
36.9%+11.0 pts
CONConservative
34.5%-3.2 pts
LABLabour
13.8%-8.9 pts
GRNGreen Party
6.7%+1.2 pts
LDMLiberal Democrat
5.2%+0.1 pts
MINMinor parties and independents
2.8%-0.2 pts
OthOther
0.7%-0.1 pts
SNPScottish National Party
0.0%change not recorded
PLCPlaid Cymru
Not recordedchange not recorded
WPBWorkers Party of Britain
Not recordedchange not recorded
Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Louth and HorncastleE14001343Electorate 76,880Valid votes 46,479Invalid votes 131Majority 5,506

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,969.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,410. Winner: 17,441.

PositionCandidatePartyVotesShareResult
1Victoria AtkinsConservative17,44137.5%Elected
2Sean MatthewsReform UK11,93525.7%2nd + 3rd signal
3Jonathan SlaterLabour10,47522.5%2nd + 3rd signal
4Robert WatsonGreen Party2,5045.4%
5Ross PepperLiberal Democrat2,3645.1%
6Paul HugillIndependent1,3592.9%
7Iconic Arty-PoleOfficial Monster Raving Loony Party3090.7%
8Marcus MoorehouseSocial Democratic Party920.2%

2019 general election

Louth and HorncastleE14000798Electorate 79,634Valid votes 52,332Invalid votes 286Majority 28,868
PositionCandidatePartyVotesShareResult
1Victoria AtkinsConservative38,02172.7%Elected
2Ellie GreenLabour9,15317.5%
3Ross PepperLiberal Democrat4,1147.9%
4Peter HillOfficial Monster Raving Loony Party1,0442.0%

2017 general election

Louth and HorncastleE14000798Electorate 79,007Valid votes 52,771Invalid votes 84Majority 19,641
PositionCandidatePartyVotesShareResult
1Victoria AtkinsConservative33,73363.9%Elected
2Julie SpeedLabour14,09226.7%
3Jonathan NobleUK Independence Party2,4604.7%
4Lisa GabrielLiberal Democrat1,9903.8%
5The Iconic Arty-PoleOfficial Monster Raving Loony Party4960.9%

2015 general election

Louth and HorncastleE14000798Electorate 74,870Valid votes 50,336Invalid votes 236Majority 14,977
PositionCandidatePartyVotesShareResult
1Victoria AtkinsConservative25,75551.2%Elected
2Colin MairUK Independence Party10,77821.4%
3Matthew BrownLabour9,07718.0%
4Lisa GabrielLiberal Democrat2,2554.5%
5Romy RaynerGreen Party1,5493.1%
6Daniel SimpsonLincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First6591.3%
7Peter HillOfficial Monster Raving Loony Party2630.5%

2010 general election

Louth and HorncastleE14000798Electorate 77,650Valid votes 50,494Invalid votes 86Majority 13,871
PositionCandidatePartyVotesShareResult
1Peter TapsellConservative25,06549.6%Elected
2Fiona MartinLiberal Democrat11,19422.2%
3Patrick MountainLabour8,76017.3%
4Julia GreenBritish National Party2,1994.4%
5Pat NurseUK Independence Party2,1834.3%
6Daniel SimpsonLincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First5761.1%
7Colin MairEnglish Democrats5171.0%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.

MapGoogle Maps