Constituency

Kingston and Surbiton

ONS code: E14001312
Lookup slug: kingston-and-surbiton

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Safe Liberal Democrat hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LDM HOLD

Liberal Democrat forecast to win in Kingston and Surbiton, Greater London

Winner: Liberal Democrat
Margin: 31.4% (15,911 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 65.5% / 77,353
Second place: Reform UK 17.7%

LDMLiberal Democrat

49.1%-2.1 pts

RFMReform UK

17.7%+8.2 pts

CONConservative

15.7%-1.4 pts

GRNGreen Party

7.7%+1.7 pts

LABLabour

6.9%-6.1 pts

OthOther

2.5%+1.3 pts

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

0.7%-1.6 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Kingston and SurbitonE14001312Electorate 77,353Valid votes 50,664Invalid votes 149Majority 17,235

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Ed Davey	Liberal Democrat	25,870	51.1%	Elected
2	Helen Edward	Conservative	8,635	17.0%
3	Eunice O'Dame	Labour	6,561	13.0%
4	Mark Fox	Reform UK	4,787	9.4%
5	Debojyoti Das	Green Party	3,009	5.9%
6	Yvonne Tracey	Kingston Independent Residents Group	1,177	2.3%
7	Ali Abdulla	Workers Party of Britain	395	0.8%
8	A.Gent Chinners	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	230	0.5%

2019 general election

Kingston and SurbitonE14000770Electorate 81,975Valid votes 60,846Invalid votes 135Majority 10,489

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Edward Davey	Liberal Democrat	31,103	51.1%	Elected
2	Aphra Brandreth	Conservative	20,614	33.9%
3	Leanne Werner	Labour	6,528	10.7%
4	Sharron Sumner	Green Party	1,038	1.7%
5	Scott Holman	The Brexit Party	788	1.3%
6	James Giles	Independent	458	0.8%
7	Jason Chinnery	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	193	0.3%
8	Roger Glencross	UK Independence Party	124	0.2%

2017 general election

Kingston and SurbitonE14000770Electorate 81,588Valid votes 62,178Invalid votes 87Majority 4,124

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,079.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 32,889. Winner: 27,810.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Edward Davey	Liberal Democrat	27,810	44.7%	Elected
2	James Berry	Conservative	23,686	38.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Laurie South	Labour	9,203	14.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Graham Matthews	UK Independence Party	675	1.1%
5	Chris Walker	Green Party	536	0.9%
6	Jason Chinnery	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	168	0.3%
7	Michael Basman	Independent	100	0.2%

2015 general election

Kingston and SurbitonE14000770Electorate 81,238Valid votes 59,253Invalid votes 137Majority 2,834

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,740.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 28,989. Winner: 23,249.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	James Berry	Conservative	23,249	39.2%	Elected
2	Edward Davey	Liberal Democrat	20,415	34.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Lee Godfrey	Labour	8,574	14.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Ben Roberts	UK Independence Party	4,321	7.3%
5	Clare Keogh	Green Party	2,322	3.9%
6	Daniel Gill	Christian Peoples Alliance	198	0.3%
7	Laurel Fogarty	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	174	0.3%

2010 general election

Kingston and SurbitonE14000770Electorate 81,115Valid votes 57,111Invalid votes 151Majority 7,560

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Edward Davey	Liberal Democrat	28,428	49.8%	Elected
2	Helen Whately	Conservative	20,868	36.5%
3	Max Freedman	Labour	5,337	9.3%
4	Jonathan Greensted	UK Independence Party	1,450	2.5%
5	Chris Walker	Green Party	555	1.0%
6	Monkey Pope	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	247	0.4%
7	Anthony May	Christian Peoples Alliance	226	0.4%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.