Constituency

Gravesham

ONS code: E14001254
Lookup slug: gravesham

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Gravesham, South East

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 1.1% (484 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 59.1% / 73,094
Second place: Labour 29.5%

RFMReform UK

30.7%+10.1 pts

LABLabour

29.5%-8.9 pts

CONConservative

29.5%-2.7 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.6%+1.4 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.7%+0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

0.0%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

GraveshamE14001254Electorate 73,094Valid votes 43,232Invalid votes 134Majority 2,712

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,198.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,821. Winner: 16,623.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Lauren Sullivan	Labour	16,623	38.5%	Elected
2	Adam Holloway	Conservative	13,911	32.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Matthew Fraser Moat	Reform UK	8,910	20.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Rebecca Hopkins	Green Party	2,254	5.2%
5	Ukonu Obasi	Liberal Democrat	1,534	3.5%

2019 general election

GraveshamE14000715Electorate 73,242Valid votes 47,560Invalid votes 174Majority 15,581

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Adam Holloway	Conservative	29,580	62.2%	Elected
2	Lauren Sullivan	Labour	13,999	29.4%
3	Ukonu Obasi	Liberal Democrat	2,584	5.4%
4	Marna Gilligan	Green Party	1,397	2.9%

2017 general election

GraveshamE14000715Electorate 72,954Valid votes 48,997Invalid votes 109Majority 9,347

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Adam Holloway	Conservative	27,237	55.6%	Elected
2	Mandy Garford	Labour	17,890	36.5%
3	Emmanuel Feyisetan	UK Independence Party	1,742	3.6%
4	James Willis	Liberal Democrat	1,210	2.5%
5	Marna Gilligan	Green Party	723	1.5%
6	Michael Rogan	Independent	195	0.4%

2015 general election

GraveshamE14000715Electorate 72,043Valid votes 50,139Invalid votes 181Majority 8,370

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 936.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,420. Winner: 23,484.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Adam Holloway	Conservative	23,484	46.8%	Elected
2	Tan Dhesi	Labour	15,114	30.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Sean Marriott	UK Independence Party	9,306	18.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Mark Lindop	Green Party	1,124	2.2%
5	Anne-Marie Bunting	Liberal Democrat	1,111	2.2%

2010 general election

GraveshamE14000715Electorate 70,195Valid votes 47,303Invalid votes 73Majority 9,312

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Adam Holloway	Conservative	22,956	48.5%	Elected
2	Kathryn Smith	Labour + Co-operative Party	13,644	28.8%
3	Anna Arrowsmith	Liberal Democrat	6,293	13.3%
4	Geoffrey Clark	UK Independence Party	2,265	4.8%
5	Steven Uncles	English Democrats	1,005	2.1%
6	Richard Crawford	Green Party	675	1.4%
7	Alice Dartnell	Independent	465	1.0%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.