Constituency

Gosport

ONS code: E14001252
Lookup slug: gosport

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Likely Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Gosport, South East

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 10.4% (4,596 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 60.4% / 73,261
Second place: Reform UK 28.0%

CONConservative

38.4%-2.0 pts

RFMReform UK

28.0%+9.9 pts

LABLabour

18.2%-8.5 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

8.4%-0.8 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.9%+1.4 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.7%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.7%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

GosportE14001252Electorate 73,261Valid votes 44,277Invalid votes 134Majority 6,054

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,929.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 19,759. Winner: 17,830.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Caroline Dinenage	Conservative	17,830	40.3%	Elected
2	Edward Batterbury	Labour	11,776	26.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Matt Mulliss	Reform UK	7,983	18.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Tim Bearder	Liberal Democrat	4,039	9.1%
5	Tony Sudworth	Green Party	1,948	4.4%
6	Jeff Roberts	Independent	334	0.8%
7	Lisa Englefield	Heritage Party	319	0.7%
8	Dave Watson	Hampshire Independents	48	0.1%

2019 general election

GosportE14000713Electorate 73,541Valid votes 48,453Invalid votes 225Majority 23,278

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Caroline Dinenage	Conservative	32,226	66.5%	Elected
2	Tom Chatwin	Labour	8,948	18.5%
3	Martin Pepper	Liberal Democrat	5,473	11.3%
4	Zoe Aspinall	Green Party	1,806	3.7%

2017 general election

GosportE14000713Electorate 74,152Valid votes 49,481Invalid votes 28Majority 17,211

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Caroline Dinenage	Conservative	30,647	61.9%	Elected
2	Alan Durrant	Labour	13,436	27.2%
3	Bruce Tennant	Liberal Democrat	2,328	4.7%
4	Chloe Marie Palmer	UK Independence Party	1,790	3.6%
5	Monica Cassidy	Green Party	1,024	2.1%
6	Jeffrey Roberts	Independent	256	0.5%

2015 general election

GosportE14000713Electorate 73,268Valid votes 47,665Invalid votes 86Majority 17,098

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Caroline Dinenage	Conservative	26,364	55.3%	Elected
2	Christopher Wood	UK Independence Party	9,266	19.4%
3	Alan Durrant	Labour	6,926	14.5%
4	Rob Hylands	Liberal Democrat	3,298	6.9%
5	Monica Cassidy	Green Party	1,707	3.6%
6	Jeffrey Roberts	Independent	104	0.2%

2010 general election

GosportE14000713Electorate 72,816Valid votes 46,939Invalid votes 135Majority 14,413

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Caroline Dinenage	Conservative	24,300	51.8%	Elected
2	Rob Hylands	Liberal Democrat	9,887	21.1%
3	Graham Giles	Labour	7,944	16.9%
4	Andrew Rice	UK Independence Party	1,496	3.2%
5	Barry Bennett	British National Party	1,004	2.1%
6	Bob Shaw	English Democrats	622	1.3%
7	Andrea Claire Smith	Green Party	573	1.2%
8	David Smith	Independent	493	1.1%
9	Charles Read	Independent	331	0.7%
10	Brian Hart	Independent	289	0.6%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.