Constituency

Gloucester

ONS code: E14001248
Lookup slug: gloucester

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Gloucester, South West

Winner: Labour
Margin: 1.5% (668 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 57.5% / 79,475
Second place: Conservative 26.3%

LABLabour

27.8%-8.3 pts

CONConservative

26.3%-2.2 pts

RFMReform UK

25.6%+9.6 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

9.9%-0.5 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.7%+1.6 pts

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

2.1%0.0 pts

OthOther

1.6%-0.2 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

GloucesterE14001248Electorate 79,475Valid votes 45,692Invalid votes 144Majority 3,431

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,876.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,348. Winner: 16,472.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alex McIntyre	Labour	16,472	36.1%	Elected
2	Richard Graham	Conservative	13,041	28.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Chris Farmer	Reform UK	7,307	16.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Rebecca Trimnell	Liberal Democrat	4,759	10.4%
5	Adam Shearing	Green Party	2,307	5.0%
6	Steve Gower	Workers Party of Britain	974	2.1%
7	Akhlaque Ahmed	Socialist Labour Party	496	1.1%
8	Fred Wing Commander (RTD) Ramsey	Independent	336	0.7%

2019 general election

GloucesterE14000712Electorate 81,319Valid votes 53,764Invalid votes 200Majority 10,277

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Richard Graham	Conservative	29,159	54.2%	Elected
2	Fran Boait	Labour + Co-operative Party	18,882	35.1%
3	Rebecca Trimnell	Liberal Democrat	4,338	8.1%
4	Michael Byfield	Green Party	1,385	2.6%

2017 general election

GloucesterE14000712Electorate 82,965Valid votes 54,071Invalid votes 76Majority 5,520

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Richard Graham	Conservative	27,208	50.3%	Elected
2	Barry Kirby	Labour	21,688	40.1%
3	Jeremy Hilton	Liberal Democrat	2,716	5.0%
4	Daniel Woolf	UK Independence Party	1,495	2.8%
5	Gerald Hartley	Green Party	754	1.4%
6	George Ridgeon	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	210	0.4%

2015 general election

GloucesterE14000712Electorate 82,968Valid votes 52,575Invalid votes 111Majority 7,251

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 246.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,083. Winner: 23,837.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Richard Graham	Conservative	23,837	45.3%	Elected
2	Sophy Gardner	Labour	16,586	31.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Richard Ford	UK Independence Party	7,497	14.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Jeremy Hilton	Liberal Democrat	2,828	5.4%
5	Jonathan Ingleby	Green Party	1,485	2.8%
6	George Ridgeon	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	227	0.4%
7	Sue Powell	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	115	0.2%

2010 general election

GloucesterE14000712Electorate 79,321Valid votes 50,764Invalid votes 126Majority 2,420

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 7,347.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 27,614. Winner: 20,267.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Richard Graham	Conservative	20,267	39.9%	Elected
2	Parmjit Dhanda	Labour	17,847	35.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Jeremy Hilton	Liberal Democrat	9,767	19.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Mike Smith	UK Independence Party	1,808	3.6%
5	Alan Platt	English Democrats	564	1.1%
6	Bryan Meloy	Green Party	511	1.0%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.