Constituency

Gedling

ONS code: E14001245
Lookup slug: gedling

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Likely Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Gedling, East Midlands

Winner: Labour
Margin: 12.9% (6,306 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 63.3% / 77,006
Second place: Reform UK 26.1%

LABLabour

39.0%-8.8 pts

RFMReform UK

26.1%+9.2 pts

CONConservative

21.0%-2.4 pts

GRNGreen Party

8.0%+1.6 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

5.3%+0.3 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.5%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

GedlingE14001245Electorate 77,006Valid votes 48,722Invalid votes 176Majority 11,881

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Michael Payne	Labour	23,278	47.8%	Elected
2	Tom Randall	Conservative	11,397	23.4%
3	Simon Christy	Reform UK	8,211	16.9%
4	Dominic Berry	Green Party	3,122	6.4%
5	Tad Jones	Liberal Democrat	2,473	5.1%
6	Irenea Marriott	Independent	241	0.5%

2019 general election

GedlingE14000710Electorate 71,336Valid votes 49,953Invalid votes 144Majority 679

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,600.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,318. Winner: 22,718.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Tom Randall	Conservative	22,718	45.5%	Elected
2	Vernon Coaker	Labour	22,039	44.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Anita Prabhakar	Liberal Democrat	2,279	4.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Graham Hunt	The Brexit Party	1,820	3.6%
5	Jim Norris	Green Party	1,097	2.2%

2017 general election

GedlingE14000710Electorate 71,223Valid votes 51,682Invalid votes 83Majority 4,694

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Vernon Coaker	Labour	26,833	51.9%	Elected
2	Carolyn Abbott	Conservative	22,139	42.8%
3	Lee Waters	UK Independence Party	1,143	2.2%
4	Robert Swift	Liberal Democrat	1,052	2.0%
5	Rebecca Connick	Green Party	515	1.0%

2015 general election

GedlingE14000710Electorate 70,000Valid votes 47,998Invalid votes 145Majority 2,986

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,944.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 24,251. Winner: 20,307.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Vernon Coaker	Labour	20,307	42.3%	Elected
2	Carolyn Abbott	Conservative	17,321	36.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Lee Waters	UK Independence Party	6,930	14.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Robert Swift	Liberal Democrat	1,906	4.0%
5	Jim Norris	Green Party	1,534	3.2%

2010 general election

GedlingE14000710Electorate 70,866Valid votes 48,190Invalid votes 69Majority 1,859

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,491.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 25,312. Winner: 19,821.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Vernon Coaker	Labour	19,821	41.1%	Elected
2	Bruce Laughton	Conservative	17,962	37.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Julia Bateman	Liberal Democrat	7,350	15.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Stephen Adcock	British National Party	1,598	3.3%
5	Dave Marshall	UK Independence Party	1,459	3.0%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.