Constituency

Derby South

ONS code: E14001194
Lookup slug: derby-south

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Derby South, East Midlands

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 5.2% (1,943 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 51.3% / 72,944
Second place: Labour 29.5%

RFMReform UK

34.7%+11.8 pts

LABLabour

29.5%-9.4 pts

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

13.5%-0.5 pts

CONConservative

10.9%-3.0 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.5%+1.4 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

4.8%-0.1 pts

OthOther

0.5%-0.3 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Derby SouthE14001194Electorate 72,944Valid votes 37,399Invalid votes 145Majority 6,002

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Baggy Shanker	Labour + Co-operative Party	14,503	38.8%	Elected
2	Alan Graves	Reform UK	8,501	22.7%
3	Chris Williamson	Workers Party of Britain	5,205	13.9%
4	Jamie Mulhall	Conservative	5,192	13.9%
5	Sam Ward	Green Party	1,899	5.1%
6	Joe Naitta	Liberal Democrat	1,807	4.8%
7	Zephyr Tair	Independent	292	0.8%

2019 general election

Derby SouthE14000663Electorate 73,062Valid votes 42,462Invalid votes 137Majority 6,019

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Margaret Beckett	Labour	21,690	51.1%	Elected
2	Ed Barker	Conservative	15,671	36.9%
3	Joe Naitta	Liberal Democrat	2,621	6.2%
4	Timothy Prosser	The Brexit Party	2,480	5.8%

2017 general election

Derby SouthE14000663Electorate 69,918Valid votes 45,306Invalid votes 105Majority 11,248

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Margaret Beckett	Labour	26,430	58.3%	Elected
2	Evonne Williams	Conservative	15,182	33.5%
3	Alan Graves	UK Independence Party	2,011	4.4%
4	Joe Naitta	Liberal Democrat	1,229	2.7%
5	Ian Sleeman	Green Party	454	1.0%

2015 general election

Derby SouthE14000663Electorate 70,240Valid votes 40,820Invalid votes 166Majority 8,828

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Margaret Beckett	Labour	20,007	49.0%	Elected
2	Evonne Williams	Conservative	11,179	27.4%
3	Victor Webb	UK Independence Party	6,341	15.5%
4	Joe Naitta	Liberal Democrat	1,717	4.2%
5	David Foster	Green Party	1,208	3.0%
6	Chris Fernandez	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	225	0.6%
7	David Gale	British Independents	143	0.4%

2010 general election

Derby SouthE14000663Electorate 70,999Valid votes 41,188Invalid votes 246Majority 6,122

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 2,308.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,159. Winner: 17,851.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Margaret Beckett	Labour	17,851	43.3%	Elected
2	Jack Perschke	Conservative	11,729	28.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	David Batey	Liberal Democrat	8,430	20.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Stephen Fowke	UK Independence Party	1,821	4.4%
5	Alan Graves	Independent	1,357	3.3%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.