Constituency

Brentwood and Ongar

ONS code: E14001125
Lookup slug: brentwood-and-ongar

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Brentwood and Ongar, East of England

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 1.6% (762 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 64.1% / 75,352
Second place: Conservative 33.8%

RFMReform UK

35.4%+11.1 pts

CONConservative

33.8%-2.9 pts

LABLabour

14.7%-8.3 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

11.1%-1.0 pts

GRNGreen Party

4.7%+1.0 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.4%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Brentwood and OngarE14001125Electorate 75,352Valid votes 48,332Invalid votes 169Majority 5,980

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,102.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,833. Winner: 17,731.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alex Burghart	Conservative	17,731	36.7%	Elected
2	Paul Godfrey	Reform UK	11,751	24.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Gareth Barrett	Labour	11,082	22.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	David Kendall	Liberal Democrat	5,809	12.0%
5	RJ Learmouth	Green Party	1,770	3.7%
6	Robin Tilbrook	English Democrats	189	0.4%

2019 general election

Brentwood and OngarE14000594Electorate 75,255Valid votes 52,949Invalid votes 238Majority 29,065

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alex Burghart	Conservative	36,308	68.6%	Elected
2	Oliver Durose	Labour	7,243	13.7%
3	David Kendall	Liberal Democrat	7,187	13.6%
4	Paul Jeater	Green Party	1,679	3.2%
5	Robin Tilbrook	English Democrats	532	1.0%

2017 general election

Brentwood and OngarE14000594Electorate 75,067Valid votes 52,910Invalid votes 107Majority 24,002

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alex Burghart	Conservative	34,811	65.8%	Elected
2	Gareth Barrett	Labour	10,809	20.4%
3	Karen Chilvers	Liberal Democrat	4,426	8.4%
4	Michael McGough	UK Independence Party	1,845	3.5%
5	Paul Jeater	Green Party	915	1.7%
6	Louca Kousoulou	Independent	104	0.2%

2015 general election

Brentwood and OngarE14000594Electorate 71,918Valid votes 51,897Invalid votes 151Majority 21,810

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Eric Pickles	Conservative	30,534	58.8%	Elected
2	Michael McGough	UK Independence Party	8,724	16.8%
3	Liam Preston	Labour	6,492	12.5%
4	David Kendall	Liberal Democrat	4,577	8.8%
5	Reza Hossain	Green Party	1,397	2.7%
6	Robin Tilbrook	English Democrats	173	0.3%

2010 general election

Brentwood and OngarE14000594Electorate 69,309Valid votes 50,592Invalid votes 127Majority 16,921

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Eric Pickles	Conservative	28,793	56.9%	Elected
2	David Kendall	Liberal Democrat	11,872	23.5%
3	Heidi Benzing	Labour	4,992	9.9%
4	Stuart McGough	UK Independence Party	2,037	4.0%
5	Paul Morris	British National Party	1,447	2.9%
6	Jessica Barnecutt	Green Party	584	1.2%
7	Robin Tilbrook	English Democrats	491	1.0%
8	James Sapwell	Independent	263	0.5%
9	Danny Attfield	Independent	113	0.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.