Constituency

Bath

ONS code: E14001080
Lookup slug: bath

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Safe Liberal Democrat hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LDM HOLD

Liberal Democrat forecast to win in Bath, South West

Winner: Liberal Democrat
Margin: 25.0% (12,051 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 69.1% / 69,662
Second place: Green Party 15.3%

LDMLiberal Democrat

40.4%-1.1 pts

GRNGreen Party

15.3%+2.8 pts

CONConservative

14.8%-1.1 pts

RFMReform UK

13.6%+5.7 pts

LABLabour

11.9%-6.1 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

3.6%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.8%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

BathE14001080Electorate 69,662Valid votes 48,130Invalid votes 192Majority 11,218

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Wera Hobhouse	Liberal Democrat	19,883	41.3%	Elected
2	Dan Bewley	Labour	8,665	18.0%
3	James Wright	Conservative	7,659	15.9%
4	Dom Tristram	Green Party	5,952	12.4%
5	Teresa Hall	Reform UK	3,798	7.9%
6	Colin Blackburn	Independent	1,749	3.6%
7	Matthew Alford	Workers Party of Britain	230	0.5%
8	Bill Blockhead	Independent	169	0.4%
9	A ON	Independent	25	0.1%

2019 general election

BathE14000547Electorate 67,805Valid votes 52,138Invalid votes 192Majority 12,322

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Wera Hobhouse	Liberal Democrat	28,419	54.5%	Elected
2	Annabel Tall	Conservative	16,097	30.9%
3	Mike Davies	Labour	6,639	12.7%
4	Jimi Ogunnusi	The Brexit Party	642	1.2%
5	Bill Blockhead	Independent	341	0.7%

2017 general election

BathE14000547Electorate 66,778Valid votes 49,583Invalid votes 112Majority 5,694

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,585.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 25,021. Winner: 23,436.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Wera Hobhouse	Liberal Democrat	23,436	47.3%	Elected
2	Ben Howlett	Conservative	17,742	35.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Joe Rayment	Labour	7,279	14.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Eleanor Field	Green Party	1,126	2.3%

2015 general election

BathE14000547Electorate 63,084Valid votes 47,167Invalid votes 192Majority 3,833

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 2,383.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,216. Winner: 17,833.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Ben Howlett	Conservative	17,833	37.8%	Elected
2	Steve Bradley	Liberal Democrat	14,000	29.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Ollie Middleton	Labour	6,216	13.2%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Dominic Tristram	Green Party	5,634	11.9%
5	Julian Deverell	UK Independence Party	2,922	6.2%
6	Loraine Morgan-Brinkhurst	Independent	499	1.1%
7	Jenny Knight	English Democrats	63	0.1%

2010 general election

BathE14000547Electorate 66,686Valid votes 47,086Invalid votes 83Majority 11,883

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Don Foster	Liberal Democrat	26,651	56.6%	Elected
2	Fabian Richter	Conservative	14,768	31.4%
3	Hattie Ajderian	Labour	3,251	6.9%
4	Eric Lucas	Green Party	1,120	2.4%
5	Ernie Warrender	UK Independence Party	890	1.9%
6	Steve Hewett	Christian Party, Proclaiming Christ's Lordship	250	0.5%
7	Anon Onymous	Independent	69	0.1%
8	Sean Geddis	Independent	56	0.1%
9	Robert Craig	All The South Party	31	0.1%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.