Constituency

Basingstoke

ONS code: E14001078
Lookup slug: basingstoke

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Basingstoke, South East

Winner: Labour
Margin: 7.3% (3,590 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 62.4% / 78,487
Second place: Conservative 27.5%

LABLabour

34.8%-7.9 pts

CONConservative

27.5%-2.0 pts

RFMReform UK

20.8%+7.9 pts

GRNGreen Party

9.3%+2.0 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

6.5%0.0 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

1.2%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

BasingstokeE14001078Electorate 78,487Valid votes 48,989Invalid votes 189Majority 6,484

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Luke Murphy	Labour	20,922	42.7%	Elected
2	Maria Miller	Conservative	14,438	29.5%
3	Ray Saint	Reform UK	6,314	12.9%
4	Michael Howard-Sorrell	Green Party	3,568	7.3%
5	Richard Whelan	Liberal Democrat	3,176	6.5%
6	Alan Stone	Hampshire Independents	571	1.2%

2019 general election

BasingstokeE14000545Electorate 82,928Valid votes 54,713Invalid votes 244Majority 14,198

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Maria Miller	Conservative	29,593	54.1%	Elected
2	Kerena Marchant	Labour	15,395	28.1%
3	Sashi Mylvaganam	Liberal Democrat	6,841	12.5%
4	Jonathan Jenkin	Green Party	2,138	3.9%
5	Alan Stone	Independent	746	1.4%

2017 general election

BasingstokeE14000545Electorate 81,875Valid votes 55,960Invalid votes 138Majority 9,466

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Maria Miller	Conservative	29,510	52.7%	Elected
2	Terry Bridgeman	Labour	20,044	35.8%
3	John Shaw	Liberal Democrat	3,406	6.1%
4	Alan Stone	UK Independence Party	1,681	3.0%
5	Richard Winter	Green Party	1,106	2.0%
6	Scott Neville	Libertarian Party	213	0.4%

2015 general election

BasingstokeE14000545Electorate 79,665Valid votes 53,076Invalid votes 219Majority 11,063

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Maria Miller	Conservative	25,769	48.6%	Elected
2	Paul Harvey	Labour	14,706	27.7%
3	Alan Stone	UK Independence Party	8,290	15.6%
4	Janice Spalding	Liberal Democrat	3,919	7.4%
5	Omar Selim	Independent	392	0.7%

2010 general election

BasingstokeE14000545Electorate 75,473Valid votes 50,654Invalid votes 118Majority 13,176

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Maria Miller	Conservative	25,590	50.5%	Elected
2	John Shaw	Liberal Democrat	12,414	24.5%
3	Funda Pepperell	Labour	10,327	20.4%
4	Craig Howell	UK Independence Party	2,076	4.1%
5	Stephen Saul	Independent	247	0.5%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.