Constituency

Banbury

ONS code: E14001072
Lookup slug: banbury

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Banbury, South East

Winner: Labour
Margin: 1.1% (525 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 65.8% / 73,250
Second place: Conservative 29.8%

LABLabour

30.9%-7.5 pts

CONConservative

29.8%-1.8 pts

RFMReform UK

20.8%+7.7 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

9.1%0.0 pts

GRNGreen Party

7.1%+1.7 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

1.8%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.8%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

BanburyE14001072Electorate 73,250Valid votes 48,178Invalid votes 187Majority 3,256

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 3,028.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,496. Winner: 18,468.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Sean Woodcock	Labour	18,468	38.3%	Elected
2	Victoria Prentis	Conservative	15,212	31.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Paul Topley	Reform UK	6,284	13.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Liz Adams	Liberal Democrat	4,352	9.0%
5	Arron Baker	Green Party	2,615	5.4%
6	Cassi Bellingham	Independent	850	1.8%
7	Chris Nevile	Climate Party	242	0.5%
8	Declan Soper	Social Democratic Party	155	0.3%

2019 general election

BanburyE14000539Electorate 90,116Valid votes 62,921Invalid votes 355Majority 16,813

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Victoria Prentis	Conservative	34,148	54.3%	Elected
2	Suzette Watson	Labour	17,335	27.6%
3	Tim Bearder	Liberal Democrat	8,831	14.0%
4	Ian Middleton	Green Party	2,607	4.1%

2017 general election

BanburyE14000539Electorate 83,824Valid votes 61,562Invalid votes 115Majority 12,399

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Victoria Prentis	Conservative	33,388	54.2%	Elected
2	Sean Woodcock	Labour	20,989	34.1%
3	John Howson	Liberal Democrat	3,452	5.6%
4	Dickie Bird	UK Independence Party	1,581	2.6%
5	Ian Middleton	Green Party	1,225	2.0%
6	Roseanne Edwards	Independent	927	1.5%

2015 general election

BanburyE14000539Electorate 86,420Valid votes 58,008Invalid votes 183Majority 18,395

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Victoria Prentis	Conservative	30,749	53.0%	Elected
2	Sean Woodcock	Labour	12,354	21.3%
3	Dickie Bird	UK Independence Party	8,050	13.9%
4	John Howson	Liberal Democrat	3,440	5.9%
5	Ian Middleton	Green Party	2,686	4.6%
6	Roseanne Edwards	National Health Action Party	729	1.3%

2010 general election

BanburyE14000539Electorate 84,379Valid votes 56,241Invalid votes 157Majority 18,227

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Tony Baldry	Conservative	29,703	52.8%	Elected
2	David Rundle	Liberal Democrat	11,476	20.4%
3	Les Sibley	Labour	10,773	19.2%
4	David Fairweather	UK Independence Party	2,806	5.0%
5	Alastair White	Green Party	959	1.7%
6	C. J. R. Edwards	Independent	524	0.9%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.