Constituency

Ashford

ONS code: E14001069
Lookup slug: ashford

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Ashford, South East

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 6.1% (2,857 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 61.6% / 76,233
Second place: Conservative 25.9%

RFMReform UK

32.0%+10.3 pts

CONConservative

25.9%-2.9 pts

LABLabour

23.8%-8.8 pts

GRNGreen Party

11.2%+1.9 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

4.9%-0.3 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

2.6%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

AshfordE14001069Electorate 76,233Valid votes 46,975Invalid votes 164Majority 1,779

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 8,362.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,624. Winner: 15,262.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Sojan Joseph	Labour	15,262	32.5%	Elected
2	Damian Green	Conservative	13,483	28.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Tristram Kennedy Harper	Reform UK	10,141	21.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Mandy Rossi	Green Party	4,355	9.3%
5	Adam Rowledge	Liberal Democrat	2,445	5.2%
6	James Ransley	Consensus	1,289	2.7%

2019 general election

AshfordE14000536Electorate 89,553Valid votes 60,059Invalid votes 279Majority 24,029

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Damian Green	Conservative	37,270	62.1%	Elected
2	Dara Farrell	Labour	13,241	22.0%
3	Adrian Gee-Turner	Liberal Democrat	6,048	10.1%
4	Mandy Rossi	Green Party	2,638	4.4%
5	Susannah De Sanvil	Independent	862	1.4%

2017 general election

AshfordE14000536Electorate 87,387Valid votes 59,879Invalid votes 135Majority 17,478

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Damian Green	Conservative	35,318	59.0%	Elected
2	Sally Gathern	Labour	17,840	29.8%
3	Adrian Gee-Turner	Liberal Democrat	3,101	5.2%
4	Gerald O'Brien	UK Independence Party	2,218	3.7%
5	Mandy Rossi	Green Party	1,402	2.3%

2015 general election

AshfordE14000536Electorate 85,177Valid votes 57,372Invalid votes 175Majority 19,296

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Damian Green	Conservative	30,094	52.5%	Elected
2	Gerald O'Brien	UK Independence Party	10,798	18.8%
3	Brendan Chilton	Labour	10,580	18.4%
4	Debbie Enever	Liberal Democrat	3,433	6.0%
5	Mandy Rossi	Green Party	2,467	4.3%

2010 general election

AshfordE14000536Electorate 81,271Valid votes 55,185Invalid votes 93Majority 17,297

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Damian Green	Conservative	29,878	54.1%	Elected
2	Chris Took	Liberal Democrat	12,581	22.8%
3	Chris Clark	Labour	9,204	16.7%
4	Jeffrey Elenor	UK Independence Party	2,508	4.5%
5	Steve Campkin	Green Party	1,014	1.8%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.