Constituency

Stoke-on-Trent Central

ONS code: E14001520
Lookup slug: stoke-on-trent-central

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Stoke-on-Trent Central, West Midlands

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 5.1% (1,801 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 47.8% / 73,812
Second place: Labour 32.2%

RFMReform UK

37.3%+12.8 pts

LABLabour

32.2%-10.5 pts

CONConservative

14.4%-3.4 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.3%+1.5 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

6.2%-0.4 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.1%+0.2 pts

OthOther

1.4%-0.3 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Stoke-on-Trent CentralE14001520Electorate 73,812Valid votes 35,289Invalid votes 137Majority 6,409

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Gareth Snell	Labour + Co-operative Party	14,950	42.4%	Elected
2	Luke Shenton	Reform UK	8,541	24.2%
3	Chandra Kanneganti	Conservative	6,221	17.6%
4	Navid Kaleem	Independent	2,281	6.5%
5	Adam Colclough	Green Party	1,703	4.8%
6	Laura McCarthy	Liberal Democrat	999	2.8%
7	Andy Poleshaw	Independent	315	0.9%
8	AliRom Alirom	Independent	279	0.8%

2019 general election

Stoke-on-Trent CentralE14000972Electorate 55,419Valid votes 32,070Invalid votes 67Majority 670

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,021.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 15,578. Winner: 14,557.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Jo Gideon	Conservative	14,557	45.4%	Elected
2	Gareth Snell	Labour + Co-operative Party	13,887	43.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Tariq Mahmood	The Brexit Party	1,691	5.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Steven Pritchard	Liberal Democrat	1,116	3.5%
5	Adam Colclough	Green Party	819	2.6%

2017 general election

Stoke-on-Trent CentralE14000972Electorate 56,915Valid votes 33,145Invalid votes 64Majority 3,897

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Gareth Snell	Labour + Co-operative Party	17,083	51.5%	Elected
2	Daniel Jellyman	Conservative	13,186	39.8%
3	Mick Harold	UK Independence Party	1,608	4.9%
4	Peter Andras	Liberal Democrat	680	2.1%
5	Adam Colclough	Green Party	378	1.1%
6	Barbara Fielding	Independent	210	0.6%

2015 general election

Stoke-on-Trent CentralE14000972Electorate 60,634Valid votes 31,084Invalid votes 150Majority 5,179

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,829.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 14,049. Winner: 12,220.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Tristram Hunt	Labour	12,220	39.3%	Elected
2	Mick Harold	UK Independence Party	7,041	22.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Liam Ascough	Conservative	7,008	22.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Mark Breeze	Independent	2,120	6.8%
5	Zulfiqar Ali	Liberal Democrat	1,296	4.2%
6	Jan Zablocki	Green Party	1,123	3.6%
7	Ali Majid	Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol	244	0.8%
8	Paul Toussaint	Ubuntu Party	32	0.1%

2010 general election

Stoke-on-Trent CentralE14000972Electorate 61,003Valid votes 32,470Invalid votes 98Majority 5,566

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,267.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 13,872. Winner: 12,605.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Tristram Hunt	Labour	12,605	38.8%	Elected
2	John Redfern	Liberal Democrat	7,039	21.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Norsheen Bhatti	Conservative	6,833	21.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Simon Darby	British National Party	2,502	7.7%
5	Carol Lovatt	UK Independence Party	1,402	4.3%
6	Paul Breeze	Independent	959	3.0%
7	Gary Elsby	Independent	399	1.2%
8	Brian Ward	City Independents	303	0.9%
9	Alby Walker	Independent	295	0.9%
10	Matthew Wright	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	133	0.4%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.