Constituency

Spelthorne

ONS code: E14001505
Lookup slug: spelthorne

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Spelthorne, South East

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 1.1% (491 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 62.6% / 73,782
Second place: Reform UK 27.8%

CONConservative

28.9%-1.6 pts

RFMReform UK

27.8%+9.9 pts

LABLabour

18.8%-8.2 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

17.2%-1.7 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.8%+1.6 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.6%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

SpelthorneE14001505Electorate 73,782Valid votes 46,166Invalid votes 144Majority 1,590

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 7,120.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 21,158. Winner: 14,038.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Lincoln Jopp	Conservative	14,038	30.4%	Elected
2	Claire Tighe	Labour	12,448	27.0%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Harry Boparai	Liberal Democrat	8,710	18.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Rory O'Brien	Reform UK	8,284	17.9%
5	Manu Singh	Green Party	2,413	5.2%
6	Alistair Miller	Social Democratic Party	273	0.6%

2019 general election

SpelthorneE14000959Electorate 70,929Valid votes 49,510Invalid votes 273Majority 18,393

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Kwasi Kwarteng	Conservative	29,141	58.9%	Elected
2	Pavitar Mann	Labour	10,748	21.7%
3	David Campanale	Liberal Democrat	7,499	15.1%
4	Paul Jacobs	Green Party	2,122	4.3%

2017 general election

SpelthorneE14000959Electorate 72,641Valid votes 50,115Invalid votes 106Majority 13,425

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Kwasi Kwarteng	Conservative	28,692	57.3%	Elected
2	Rebecca Geach	Labour	15,267	30.5%
3	Rosamund Shimell	Liberal Democrat	2,755	5.5%
4	Redvers Cunningham	UK Independence Party	2,296	4.6%
5	Paul Jacobs	Green Party	1,105	2.2%

2015 general election

SpelthorneE14000959Electorate 71,592Valid votes 49,079Invalid votes 191Majority 14,152

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Kwasi Kwarteng	Conservative	24,386	49.7%	Elected
2	Redvers Cunningham	UK Independence Party	10,234	20.9%
3	Rebecca Geach	Labour	9,114	18.6%
4	Rosie Shimell	Liberal Democrat	3,163	6.4%
5	Paul Jacobs	Green Party	1,724	3.5%
6	Juliet Griffith	Independent	230	0.5%
7	Paul Couchman	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	228	0.5%

2010 general election

SpelthorneE14000959Electorate 70,479Valid votes 47,304Invalid votes 92Majority 10,019

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Kwasi Kwarteng	Conservative	22,261	47.1%	Elected
2	Mark Chapman	Liberal Democrat	12,242	25.9%
3	Adam Tyler-Moore	Labour	7,789	16.5%
4	Chris Browne	UK Independence Party	4,009	8.5%
5	Ian Swinglehurst	Independent	314	0.7%
6	Rod Littlewood	Best of a Bad Bunch	244	0.5%
7	Paul Couchman	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	176	0.4%
8	John Gore	Campaign for Independent Politicians	167	0.4%
9	Grahame Leon-Smith	Independents Federation UK	102	0.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.