Constituency

South Derbyshire

ONS code: E14001483
Lookup slug: south-derbyshire

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in South Derbyshire, East Midlands

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 0.1% (33 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 62.0% / 73,714
Second place: Reform UK 29.9%

LABLabour

29.9%-9.0 pts

RFMReform UK

29.9%+10.2 pts

CONConservative

27.1%-2.7 pts

GRNGreen Party

5.6%+1.3 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

5.0%+0.4 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

2.6%-0.1 pts

OthOther

0.4%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

South DerbyshireE14001483Electorate 73,714Valid votes 45,737Invalid votes 153Majority 4,168

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,811.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,545. Winner: 17,734.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Samantha Niblett	Labour	17,734	38.8%	Elected
2	Heather Wheeler	Conservative	13,566	29.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Job West	Reform UK	8,979	19.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Lucy Care	Liberal Democrat	2,134	4.7%
5	Aruhan Galieva	Green Party	1,941	4.2%
6	Amy Wheelton	Independent	1,200	2.6%
7	Paul Liversuch	Socialist Labour Party	183	0.4%

2019 general election

South DerbyshireE14000935Electorate 79,331Valid votes 53,381Invalid votes 429Majority 19,335

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Heather Wheeler	Conservative	33,502	62.8%	Elected
2	Robert Pearson	Labour	14,167	26.5%
3	Lorraine Johnson	Liberal Democrat	3,924	7.4%
4	Amanda Baker	Green Party	1,788	3.3%

2017 general election

South DerbyshireE14000935Electorate 76,380Valid votes 52,631Invalid votes 120Majority 11,970

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Heather Wheeler	Conservative	30,907	58.7%	Elected
2	Robert Pearson	Labour	18,937	36.0%
3	Lorraine Johnson	Liberal Democrat	1,870	3.6%
4	Marten Kats	Green Party	917	1.7%

2015 general election

South DerbyshireE14000935Electorate 73,923Valid votes 50,762Invalid votes 190Majority 11,471

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Heather Wheeler	Conservative	25,066	49.4%	Elected
2	Cheryl Pidgeon	Labour	13,595	26.8%
3	Alan Graves	UK Independence Party	8,998	17.7%
4	Lorraine Johnson	Liberal Democrat	1,887	3.7%
5	Marianne Bamkin	Green Party	1,216	2.4%

2010 general election

South DerbyshireE14000935Electorate 70,608Valid votes 50,419Invalid votes 71Majority 7,128

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 884.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,819. Winner: 22,935.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Heather Wheeler	Conservative	22,935	45.5%	Elected
2	Michael Edwards	Labour	15,807	31.4%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Alexis Diouf	Liberal Democrat	8,012	15.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Peter Jarvis	British National Party	2,193	4.3%
5	Charles Swabey	UK Independence Party	1,206	2.4%
6	Paul Liversuch	Socialist Labour Party	266	0.5%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.