Constituency

Sleaford and North Hykeham

ONS code: E14001476
Lookup slug: sleaford-and-north-hykeham

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Conservative hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON HOLD

Conservative forecast to win in Sleaford and North Hykeham, East Midlands

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 1.4% (699 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 64.2% / 75,651
Second place: Reform UK 32.3%

CONConservative

33.7%-2.4 pts

RFMReform UK

32.3%+10.3 pts

LABLabour

17.8%-9.2 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.5%+1.4 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

6.1%-0.3 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

4.8%+0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Sleaford and North HykehamE14001476Electorate 75,651Valid votes 48,565Invalid votes 196Majority 4,346

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,138.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,486. Winner: 17,348.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Caroline Johnson	Conservative	17,348	35.7%	Elected
2	Hanif Khan	Labour	13,002	26.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Benjamin Jackson	Reform UK	10,484	21.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Robert Oates	Lincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First	3,032	6.2%
5	Martin Blake	Green Party	2,435	5.0%
6	Matthew Winnington	Liberal Democrat	2,264	4.7%

2019 general election

Sleaford and North HykehamE14000929Electorate 94,761Valid votes 66,554Invalid votes 236Majority 32,565

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Caroline Johnson	Conservative	44,683	67.1%	Elected
2	Linda Edwards-Shea	Labour	12,118	18.2%
3	Oliver Craven	Liberal Democrat	5,355	8.0%
4	Marianne Overton	Lincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First	1,999	3.0%
5	Simon Tooke	Green Party	1,742	2.6%
6	Caroline Coram	Independent	657	1.0%

2017 general election

Sleaford and North HykehamE14000929Electorate 90,929Valid votes 65,797Invalid votes 107Majority 25,237

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Caroline Johnson	Conservative	42,245	64.2%	Elected
2	Jim Clarke	Labour	17,008	25.8%
3	Ross Pepper	Liberal Democrat	2,722	4.1%
4	Sally Chadd	UK Independence Party	1,954	3.0%
5	Fiona McKenna	Green Party	968	1.5%
6	Paul Coyne	Independent	900	1.4%

2015 general election

Sleaford and North HykehamE14000929Electorate 87,972Valid votes 61,944Invalid votes 225Majority 24,115

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Stephen Phillips	Conservative	34,805	56.2%	Elected
2	Jason Pandya-Wood	Labour	10,690	17.3%
3	Steven Hopkins	UK Independence Party	9,716	15.7%
4	Matthew Holden	Liberal Democrat	3,500	5.7%
5	Marianne Overton	Lincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First	3,233	5.2%

2010 general election

Sleaford and North HykehamE14000929Electorate 84,806Valid votes 59,530Invalid votes 79Majority 19,905

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Stephen Phillips	Conservative	30,719	51.6%	Elected
2	David Harding-Price	Liberal Democrat	10,814	18.2%
3	James Normington	Labour	10,051	16.9%
4	Marianne Overton	Lincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First	3,806	6.4%
5	Roger Doughty	UK Independence Party	2,163	3.6%
6	Mike Clayton	British National Party	1,977	3.3%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.