Constituency

Orkney and Shetland

ONS code: S14000051
Lookup slug: orkney-and-shetland

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Safe Liberal Democrat hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LDM HOLD

Liberal Democrat forecast to win in Orkney and Shetland, Scotland

Winner: Liberal Democrat
Margin: 32.1% (6,638 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 60.4% / 34,236
Second place: Scottish National Party 17.8%

LDMLiberal Democrat

49.7%-5.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

17.8%+0.6 pts

RFMReform UK

16.5%+8.9 pts

GRNGreen Party

11.1%+1.2 pts

CONConservative

2.7%-0.1 pts

LABLabour

1.7%-5.5 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.0%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Orkney and ShetlandS14000051Electorate 34,236Valid votes 20,688Invalid votes 106Majority 7,807

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alistair Carmichael	Liberal Democrat	11,392	55.1%	Elected
2	Robert Leslie	Scottish National Party	3,585	17.3%
3	Alex Armitage	Scottish Green Party	2,046	9.9%
4	Robert Smith	Reform UK	1,586	7.7%
5	Conor Savage	Labour	1,493	7.2%
6	Shane Painter	Conservative	586	2.8%

2019 general election

Orkney and ShetlandS14000051Electorate 34,211Valid votes 23,160Invalid votes 80Majority 2,507

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alistair Carmichael	Liberal Democrat	10,381	44.8%	Elected
2	Robert Leslie	Scottish National Party	7,874	34.0%
3	Jennifer Fairbairn	Conservative	2,287	9.9%
4	Coilla Drake	Labour	1,550	6.7%
5	Robert Smith	The Brexit Party	900	3.9%
6	David Barnard	Independent	168	0.7%

2017 general election

Orkney and ShetlandS14000051Electorate 34,164Valid votes 23,277Invalid votes 43Majority 4,563

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alistair Carmichael	Liberal Democrat	11,312	48.6%	Elected
2	Miriam Brett	Scottish National Party	6,749	29.0%
3	Robina Barton	Labour	2,664	11.4%
4	Jamie Halcro Johnston	Conservative	2,024	8.7%
5	Robert Smith	UK Independence Party	283	1.2%
6	Stuart Hill	Independent	245	1.1%

2015 general election

Orkney and ShetlandS14000051Electorate 34,552Valid votes 22,728Invalid votes 75Majority 817

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,208.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 10,615. Winner: 9,407.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alistair Carmichael	Liberal Democrat	9,407	41.4%	Elected
2	Danus Skene	Scottish National Party	8,590	37.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Donald Cameron	Conservative	2,025	8.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Gerry McGarvey	Labour	1,624	7.1%
5	Robert Smith	UK Independence Party	1,082	4.8%

2010 general election

Orkney and ShetlandS14000051Electorate 33,085Valid votes 19,346Invalid votes 61Majority 9,928

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Alistair Carmichael	Liberal Democrat	11,989	62.0%	Elected
2	Mark Cooper	Labour	2,061	10.7%
3	John Mowat	Scottish National Party	2,042	10.6%
4	Frank Spencer Nairn	Conservative	2,032	10.5%
5	Robert Smith	UK Independence Party	1,222	6.3%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.