Constituency

Kensington and Bayswater

ONS code: E14001310
Lookup slug: kensington-and-bayswater

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Conservative gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

CON GAIN

Conservative forecast to win in Kensington and Bayswater, Greater London

Winner: Conservative
Margin: 1.7% (697 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 54.2% / 77,306
Second place: Labour 31.1%

CONConservative

32.8%-1.0 pts

LABLabour

31.1%-9.5 pts

RFMReform UK

12.6%+6.5 pts

GRNGreen Party

9.2%+2.6 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

8.4%+1.4 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

4.3%-0.1 pts

OthOther

1.8%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Kensington and BayswaterE14001310Electorate 77,306Valid votes 41,908Invalid votes 213Majority 2,903

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 7.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 17,032. Winner: 17,025.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Joe Powell	Labour	17,025	40.6%	Elected
2	Felicity Buchan	Conservative	14,122	33.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	William Houngbo	Liberal Democrat	2,910	6.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Mona Adam	Green Party	2,732	6.5%
5	Marc Burca	Reform UK	2,514	6.0%
6	Emma Dent Coad	Independent	1,824	4.4%
7	John Stevens	Rejoin EU	486	1.2%
8	Una O'Mahony	Party of Women	116	0.3%
9	Roger Phillips	Christian Peoples Alliance	114	0.3%
10	Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India	Independent	65	0.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.