Constituency

Isle of Wight East

ONS code: E14001303
Lookup slug: isle-of-wight-east

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Isle of Wight East, South East

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 2.4% (813 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 61.0% / 55,855
Second place: Conservative 27.7%

RFMReform UK

30.1%+9.2 pts

CONConservative

27.7%-2.9 pts

GRNGreen Party

23.4%+4.8 pts

LABLabour

9.5%-8.9 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

8.3%-2.1 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

1.1%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Isle of Wight EastE14001303Electorate 55,855Valid votes 34,078Invalid votes 71Majority 3,323

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 2,990.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 13,417. Winner: 10,427.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Joe Robertson	Conservative	10,427	30.6%	Elected
2	Sarah Morris	Reform UK	7,104	20.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Vix Lowthion	Green Party	6,313	18.5%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Emily Brothers	Labour	6,264	18.4%
5	Michael Lilley	Liberal Democrat	3,550	10.4%
6	David Groocock	Independent	420	1.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.