Constituency

Hyndburn

ONS code: E14001299
Lookup slug: hyndburn

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Lean Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Hyndburn, North West

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 5.4% (1,955 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 54.2% / 67,147
Second place: Conservative 25.6%

RFMReform UK

31.0%+10.3 pts

CONConservative

25.6%-3.2 pts

LABLabour

24.1%-9.3 pts

GRNGreen Party

15.4%+1.9 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.8%+0.4 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

0.0%0.0 pts

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

HyndburnE14001299Electorate 67,147Valid votes 36,374Invalid votes 149Majority 1,687

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 5,854.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 18,040. Winner: 12,186.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Sarah Smith	Labour	12,186	33.5%	Elected
2	Sara Britcliffe	Conservative	10,499	28.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Richard Oakley	Reform UK	7,541	20.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Shabir Fazal	Green Party	4,938	13.6%
5	Beth Waller-Slack	Liberal Democrat	1,210	3.3%

2019 general election

HyndburnE14000758Electorate 70,842Valid votes 42,406Invalid votes 137Majority 2,951

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Sara Britcliffe	Conservative	20,565	48.5%	Elected
2	Graham Jones	Labour	17,614	41.5%
3	Gregory Butt	The Brexit Party	2,156	5.1%
4	Adam Waller-Slack	Liberal Democrat	1,226	2.9%
5	Katrina Brockbank	Green Party	845	2.0%

2017 general election

HyndburnE14000758Electorate 71,608Valid votes 45,202Invalid votes 105Majority 5,815

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Graham Jones	Labour	24,120	53.4%	Elected
2	Kevin Horkin	Conservative	18,305	40.5%
3	Janet Brown	UK Independence Party	1,953	4.3%
4	Les Jones	Liberal Democrat	824	1.8%

2015 general election

HyndburnE14000758Electorate 68,341Valid votes 42,887Invalid votes 179Majority 4,400

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 4,754.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 22,830. Winner: 18,076.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Graham Jones	Labour	18,076	42.1%	Elected
2	Kevin Horkin	Conservative	13,676	31.9%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Janet Brown	UK Independence Party	9,154	21.3%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Kerry Gormley	Green Party	1,122	2.6%
5	Alison Firth	Liberal Democrat	859	2.0%

2010 general election

HyndburnE14000758Electorate 67,221Valid votes 42,672Invalid votes 215Majority 3,090

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,943.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 19,474. Winner: 17,531.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Graham Jones	Labour	17,531	41.1%	Elected
2	Karen Buckley	Conservative	14,441	33.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Andrew Rankine	Liberal Democrat	5,033	11.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	David Shapcott	British National Party	2,137	5.0%
5	Granville Barker	UK Independence Party	1,481	3.5%
6	Kevin Logan	Christian Peoples Alliance	795	1.9%
7	Kerry Gormley	Green Party	463	1.1%
8	Christopher Reid	English Democrats	413	1.0%
9	Craig Hall	Independent	378	0.9%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.