Constituency

Hayes and Harlington

ONS code: E14001276
Lookup slug: hayes-and-harlington

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Safe Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Hayes and Harlington, Greater London

Winner: Labour
Margin: 21.0% (8,066 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 51.5% / 74,405
Second place: Reform UK 20.8%

LABLabour

41.8%-11.4 pts

RFMReform UK

20.8%+10.1 pts

CONConservative

20.7%-1.1 pts

GRNGreen Party

7.6%+2.1 pts

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

4.8%-0.3 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

4.1%+0.7 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Hayes and HarlingtonE14001276Electorate 74,405Valid votes 38,315Invalid votes 118Majority 12,031

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	John McDonnell	Labour	20,405	53.3%	Elected
2	Dylan Thomas	Conservative	8,374	21.9%
3	Francoise Thompson	Reform UK	4,114	10.7%
4	Christine West	Green Party	2,131	5.6%
5	Rizwana Karim	Workers Party of Britain	1,975	5.2%
6	Alexander Cunliffe	Liberal Democrat	1,316	3.4%

2019 general election

Hayes and HarlingtonE14000737Electorate 72,357Valid votes 43,994Invalid votes 108Majority 9,261

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	John McDonnell	Labour	24,545	55.8%	Elected
2	Wayne Bridges	Conservative	15,284	34.7%
3	Alex Cunliffe	Liberal Democrat	1,947	4.4%
4	Harry Boparai	The Brexit Party	1,292	2.9%
5	Christine West	Green Party	739	1.7%
6	Chika Amadi	Christian Peoples Alliance	187	0.4%

2017 general election

Hayes and HarlingtonE14000737Electorate 73,268Valid votes 47,802Invalid votes 118Majority 18,115

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	John McDonnell	Labour	31,796	66.5%	Elected
2	Greg Smith	Conservative	13,681	28.6%
3	Cliff Dixon	UK Independence Party	1,153	2.4%
4	Bill Newton Dunn	Liberal Democrat	601	1.3%
5	John Bowman	Green Party	571	1.2%

2015 general election

Hayes and HarlingtonE14000737Electorate 74,874Valid votes 45,056Invalid votes 142Majority 15,700

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	John McDonnell	Labour	26,843	59.6%	Elected
2	Pearl Lewis	Conservative	11,143	24.7%
3	Cliff Dixon	UK Independence Party	5,388	12.0%
4	Satnam Kaur Khalsa	Liberal Democrat	888	2.0%
5	Alick Munro	Green Party	794	1.8%

2010 general election

Hayes and HarlingtonE14000737Electorate 70,231Valid votes 42,637Invalid votes 279Majority 10,824

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	John McDonnell	Labour	23,377	54.8%	Elected
2	Scott Seaman-Digby	Conservative	12,553	29.4%
3	Satnam Khalsa	Liberal Democrat	3,726	8.7%
4	Chris Forster	British National Party	1,520	3.6%
5	Andrew Cripps	National Front	566	1.3%
6	Cliff Dixon	English Democrats	464	1.1%
7	Jessica Lee	Green Party	348	0.8%
8	Anell Shahzad	Christian Party, Proclaiming Christ's Lordship	83	0.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.