Constituency

Harlow

ONS code: E14001267
Lookup slug: harlow

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in Harlow, East of England

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 3.3% (1,421 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 58.1% / 74,683
Second place: Conservative 28.9%

RFMReform UK

32.2%+10.3 pts

CONConservative

28.9%-3.0 pts

LABLabour

28.4%-9.2 pts

GRNGreen Party

6.6%+1.3 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.6%+0.5 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

0.4%0.0 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

OthOther

0.0%0.0 pts

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

HarlowE14001267Electorate 74,683Valid votes 43,357Invalid votes 117Majority 2,504

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 6,957.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 23,270. Winner: 16,313.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Chris Vince	Labour + Co-operative Party	16,313	37.6%	Elected
2	Hannah Ellis	Conservative	13,809	31.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Malcolm Featherstone	Reform UK	9,461	21.8%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Yasmin Gregory	Green Party	2,267	5.2%
5	Riad Mannan	Liberal Democrat	1,350	3.1%
6	Lois Perry	UK Independence Party	157	0.4%

2019 general election

HarlowE14000729Electorate 68,078Valid votes 43,354Invalid votes 236Majority 14,063

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Robert Halfon	Conservative	27,510	63.5%	Elected
2	Laura McAlpine	Labour	13,447	31.0%
3	Charlotte Cane	Liberal Democrat	2,397	5.5%

2017 general election

HarlowE14000729Electorate 67,699Valid votes 44,846Invalid votes 75Majority 7,031

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Robert Halfon	Conservative	24,230	54.0%	Elected
2	Phil Waite	Labour	17,199	38.4%
3	Mark Gough	UK Independence Party	1,787	4.0%
4	Geoffrey Seef	Liberal Democrat	970	2.2%
5	Hannah Clare	Green Party	660	1.5%

2015 general election

HarlowE14000729Electorate 67,994Valid votes 44,251Invalid votes 125Majority 8,350

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Robert Halfon	Conservative	21,623	48.9%	Elected
2	Suzy Stride	Labour	13,273	30.0%
3	Sam Stopplecamp	UK Independence Party	7,208	16.3%
4	Murray Sackwild	Green Party	954	2.2%
5	Geoffrey Seeff	Liberal Democrat	904	2.0%
6	David Brown	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	174	0.4%
7	Eddy Butler	English Democrats	115	0.3%

2010 general election

HarlowE14000729Electorate 67,583Valid votes 43,878Invalid votes 149Majority 4,925

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,065.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 20,756. Winner: 19,691.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Robert Halfon	Conservative	19,691	44.9%	Elected
2	Bill Rammell	Labour	14,766	33.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	David White	Liberal Democrat	5,990	13.7%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Eddy Butler	British National Party	1,739	4.0%
5	John Croft	UK Independence Party	1,591	3.6%
6	Olluyemi Adeeko	Christian Party, Proclaiming Christ's Lordship	101	0.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.