Constituency

Erith and Thamesmead

ONS code: E14001229
Lookup slug: erith-and-thamesmead

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Safe Labour hold

Source updated 10/05/2026

LAB HOLD

Labour forecast to win in Erith and Thamesmead, Greater London

Winner: Labour
Margin: 15.2% (6,145 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 51.3% / 78,740
Second place: Reform UK 27.0%

LABLabour

42.2%-12.9 pts

RFMReform UK

27.0%+12.2 pts

CONConservative

12.3%-1.4 pts

GRNGreen Party

10.8%+2.2 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

4.9%+0.3 pts

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

2.4%-0.3 pts

OthOther

0.4%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

MINMinor parties and independents

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

Erith and ThamesmeadE14001229Electorate 78,740Valid votes 40,379Invalid votes 157Majority 16,302

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Abena Oppong-Asare	Labour	22,246	55.1%	Elected
2	Michael Pastor	Reform UK	5,944	14.7%
3	Richard Mark	Conservative	5,564	13.8%
4	Sarah Barry	Green Party	3,482	8.6%
5	Pierce Chalmers	Liberal Democrat	1,872	4.6%
6	Mohammed Abu Shahed	Workers Party of Britain	1,071	2.7%
7	Diana Diamond	Independent	200	0.5%

2019 general election

Erith and ThamesmeadE14000696Electorate 65,399Valid votes 41,384Invalid votes 115Majority 3,758

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Abena Oppong-Asare	Labour	19,882	48.0%	Elected
2	Joe Robertson	Conservative	16,124	39.0%
3	Tom Bright	The Brexit Party	2,246	5.4%
4	Sam Webber	Liberal Democrat	1,984	4.8%
5	Claudine Letsae	Green Party	876	2.1%
6	Richard Mitchell	Christian Peoples Alliance	272	0.7%

2017 general election

Erith and ThamesmeadE14000696Electorate 69,724Valid votes 44,464Invalid votes 79Majority 10,014

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Teresa Pearce	Labour	25,585	57.5%	Elected
2	Edward Baxter	Conservative	15,571	35.0%
3	Ronie Johnson	UK Independence Party	1,728	3.9%
4	Simon Waddington	Liberal Democrat	750	1.7%
5	Claudine Letsae	Green Party	507	1.1%
6	Temi Olodu	Christian Peoples Alliance	243	0.5%
7	Doro Oddiri	Independent	80	0.2%

2015 general election

Erith and ThamesmeadE14000696Electorate 70,397Valid votes 42,617Invalid votes 97Majority 9,525

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Teresa Pearce	Labour	21,209	49.8%	Elected
2	Anna Firth	Conservative	11,684	27.4%
3	Ronie Johnson	UK Independence Party	7,368	17.3%
4	Simon Waddington	Liberal Democrat	972	2.3%
5	Ann Garrett	Green Party	941	2.2%
6	Sid Cordle	Christian Peoples Alliance	255	0.6%
7	Graham Moore	English Democrats	188	0.4%

2010 general election

Erith and ThamesmeadE14000696Electorate 69,900Valid votes 42,476Invalid votes 197Majority 5,703

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Teresa Pearce	Labour	19,068	44.9%	Elected
2	Colin Bloom	Conservative	13,365	31.5%
3	Alexander Cunliffe	Liberal Democrat	5,116	12.0%
4	Kevin Saunders	British National Party	2,184	5.1%
5	Pamela Perrin	UK Independence Party	1,139	2.7%
6	Laurence Williams	English Democrats	465	1.1%
7	Abbey Akinoshun	Independent	438	1.0%
8	Sid Cordle	Christian Peoples Alliance	379	0.9%
9	Marek Powley	Green Party	322	0.8%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.