Constituency

East Thanet

ONS code: E14001216
Lookup slug: east-thanet

Our Recommendation

TBD

Confidence

High

Strong likelihood of
beating the left

Last reviewed

15 May 2024

Updated daily

Local recommendation

Candidate recommendation pending

PollSignal has matched this route to the local constituency record. Candidate and tactical voting evidence will appear here when the recommendation dataset is connected.

Election Maps nowcast

Tilt Reform UK gain

Source updated 10/05/2026

RFM GAIN

Reform UK forecast to win in East Thanet, South East

Winner: Reform UK
Margin: 0.9% (405 votes)
Turnout / electorate: 57.0% / 74,927
Second place: Labour 30.0%

RFMReform UK

31.0%+10.8 pts

LABLabour

30.0%-10.0 pts

CONConservative

21.1%-2.5 pts

GRNGreen Party

12.8%+2.0 pts

LDMLiberal Democrat

3.2%0.0 pts

MINMinor parties and independents

1.3%-0.1 pts

OthOther

0.9%-0.1 pts

SNPScottish National Party

0.0%change not recorded

PLCPlaid Cymru

Not recordedchange not recorded

WPBWorkers Party of Britain

Not recordedchange not recorded

Labour 248 seatsConservative 137 seatsReform UK 114 seatsLiberal Democrat 71 seatsGreen Party 5 seats

Election Maps UK Westminster nowcast: Nowcast data from Election Maps UK.

House of Commons results

General election results

Only real Westminster general elections since 2010 are shown. The rows below are linked by exact Parliament constituency code or exact Parliament constituency name.

2024 general election

East ThanetE14001216Electorate 74,927Valid votes 42,713Invalid votes 167Majority 6,971

Tactical voting signal2nd and 3rd combined votes exceeded the winner by 1,620.Combined 2nd + 3rd votes: 18,674. Winner: 17,054.

Position	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Result
1	Polly Billington	Labour	17,054	39.9%	Elected
2	Helen Harrison	Conservative	10,083	23.6%	2nd + 3rd signal
3	Paul Webb	Reform UK	8,591	20.1%	2nd + 3rd signal
4	Steve Roberts	Green Party	4,590	10.7%
5	Jai Singh	Liberal Democrat	1,365	3.2%
6	Grahame Birchall	Independent	563	1.3%
7	Paul Holton	Independent	369	0.9%
8	Mo Shafaei	Independent	98	0.2%

Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.